October 2008
MLB WORLD SERIES SELECTION – SUNDAY OCT. 26
1 STAR: PHILLIES -102
Breeders’ Cup Classic Preview – Casino Drive
Japanese Entry Casino Drive 8/1 Favorite to Win 2008 Breeders Cup Classic
Casino Drive
Japanese-trained Casino Drive arrives lightly raced but undefeated leading up to his fourth career start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com list him at 10/1 alongside three other thoroughbreds, as well as among the first level of contenders behind 6/1 Raven’s Pass and heavy favorite, Curlin.
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If it’s possible to show diverse skill in just three career starts, then Casino Drive has done it. After debuting in Kyoto, Japan with an 11½ length win over inferior competition, the horse shrugged off a 14-hour plane ride and a layover in Alaska to win by 5¾ in the grade II Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. After missing the intended Belmont Stakes with a rear hoof bruise, Casino Drive prepped well for Saturday in winning an October 12 allowance race on the same Santa Anita synthetic surface that he will encounter in the Breeders’ Classic.
Handicappers looking for something more to hang their hats on might point to Casino Drive’s regal bloodlines. His sire is 2003 American Horse of the Year Mineshaft and his half-brothers are Belmont Stakes winners Jazil and Rags to Riches.
Others might point out this a vastly untested horse, considering he has never gone the distance and has never faced anywhere near the level of competition he will see on Saturday. Considering his undefeated record may attract considerable attention from bettors on race day, the risk may exceed the value and shrewd cappers may choose to look elsewhere.
By: CHRIS ROCCO
Breeders’ Cup Preview: Henrythenavigator
Henrythenavigator
Leading the charge for the European contingent at this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is American-born but Irish-bred Henrythenavigator.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com list the thoroughbred at 10/1 alongside stablemate Duke of Marmalade and behind only 6/1 Raven’s Pass and heavy favorite Curlin.
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While he’s somewhat of a mystery in the U.S., Henrythenavigator has shown considerable class on European tracks, winning four consecutive Group I stakes this year. The fact that he won these on four separate courses suggests good versatility. Henrythenavigator first distinguished himself among European three year-olds before moving on to beat older horses as well.
European backers are expressing considerable confidence in this year’s crop. Said Colonel John trainer Eoin Harty, “The European group here is by far the best we’ve seen in the Classic. With the synthetic surface you have to respect them.” If that’s the case, Henrythenavigator may be worthy of consideration.
At the same time, it must be noted that Henrythenavigator is venturing into new territory in more ways than one on Saturday. Aside from running on his first non-turf surface, he’ll be asked to exceed a mile for the first time and will be making his first left-hand turn in a race.
While the horse has flashed the type of speed and athleticism that will be needed in the Classic, he may not have a full tank for extra distance after brutal turf wars in Europe, followed by a trip across the pond. There is risk here that trainer Aidan O’Brien’s horses may have peaked already and, on these grounds, there may be better options in the Classic.
By: CHRIS ROCCO
Breeders’ Cup Classic Preview – Curlin
Curlin
With Big Brown out of the picture, Curlin will be the overwhelming favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have established his odds to win at 7/5.
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Curlin’s resume is as good as they come. Winner of the 2007 Preakness, the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the 2008 Dubai World Cup – he’s 11-2-2 in fifteen career starts and 4-1-0 in 2008. He’s also the current top money winner in North America with over $10 million in earnings and was named American Horse of the Year in 2007. You get the picture – this horse can flat out race.
Although Curlin has never run on the synthetic surface, there is reason to believe he may not be fazed. His style of coming from off the pace is suited to emerging trends at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree Meet, as is his pole position (9), which avoids the troublesome rail. Curlin’s sire Smart Strike has established a reputation for producing all-weather and turf runners, including more than one winner on synthetic surfaces.
On the flipside, there are those who perceive the onset of decline for the great horse. After flashing brilliant athleticism in a series of multiple-length wins, Curlin has added girth of late and has won more recently in the role of the grinder. This was evidenced in his gritty but difficult victory over 40/1 long shot Past the Point in the August, 2008 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.
No doubt the greatness of this horse must be respected. However, considering that he will likely be over bet on race day, those seeking real value might be better served looking elsewhere.
By: CHRIS ROCCO
BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC PREVIEW – SAT. OCT. 25 – CHAMPS ELYSEES
British Horse Champs Elysees 25/1 Odds Long Shot to Take Breeder Cup
Champs Elysees
Trainer Bobby Frankel has decided to take a shot with five year-old turf specialist Champs Elysees in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the thoroughbred a 15/1 long shot to win this year’s Breeders’ Cup.
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Champs Elysees is coming off a third-place showing in the Grade 1 Pattison Canadian International Stakes on October 4 at Woodbine. Prior to this, the horse won in the Northern Dancer Turf Stakes also at Woodbine, making a strong move down the stretch.
Despite doing his best work on turf, Champs Elysees does have experience on the synthetic surface. He closed well once again in finishing third to Heatseeker in the Santa Anita Handicap in March.
Supporters are quick to note that Champs Elysees has world-class pedigree. Sire Danehill has been tops in Australia, France, Ireland, England and Hong Kong while producing 344 stakes winners, 25 champions, and last year’s European Horse of the Year. Dam Hasili was Broodmare of the Year in England in 2006 and all six of her racing foals are graded or group winners.
On Saturday, Champs Elysees will be running with blinkers for the first time. “I put the blinkers on him for this and he’ll run in them Saturday,” said Frankel. “I like the way he responded to them here, and I think they can move him up. He’s not usually a good workhorse; he’s usually lazy in the mornings. But he likes this track and he could run good.”
With bettors likely focusing on some of the other big-name entries, an overlooked Champs Elysees could offer value on Saturday. This is a horse with good bloodlines, experience on the surface, a proven ability to close over the required distance, and top three finishes in 15 of 19 career starts.
MLB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES ROUND: SOME THOUGHTS AND SOME PICKS
Smart Money
As with the Dodgers, we were very strong on the Red Sox in the DS round, cashing our second 2 STAR series bet on Boston. Much like the Dodgers-Cubs series, all the pundits and the majority of the betting public were high on the Angels. However, we are glad to see that these same pundits and public bettors are not flocking to the Red Sox in the CS round as decisively as they are to the Dodgers. The attitude towards Sox-Rays appears much more divided, with plenty jumping on the Tampa wagon. At the Rock Box we’ve never had a doubt that the Rays are the real deal and did not expect a sudden collapse as so many seemed to in the regular season. However, we do believe the Red sox are the better team here. Then again, this is neutralized somewhat by the considerable homefield advantage of the Rays, with 4 of the 7 being played at Tropicana Field. Red Sox will have to steal one in Tampa, no easy task to be sure. But this is where we have to talk about Jon Lester. Lester was the reason the Sox came out on top against Anaheim and he’s the reason we like them here. Quite simply, Jon Lester is the single most dominant pitcher in the American League and probably all of baseball that is still pitching at this moment. Much has been made of the fact that Beckett is no longer Beckett for Boston, but that’s okay, because Lester is filling that role quite nicely. Let Lester be Beckett and then Beckett can be something else, a #2 or #3 guy who you don’t neccessarily rely on but who’s capable of a great performance if it all suddenly clicks. Anyway, back to Lester. The brilliance of the Red Sox starting Lester in game three is that they will then have him available in game seven in Tampa. If the Sox don’t manage to win one on the road before then, they’ll win behind Lester in the last one. Let it further be said that we are not sold on the Tampa Bay offense. Of course they have great speed, but they lack the offensive balance and power that a team like Boston presents. We’ll also give the Sox a slight edge in starting pitching strictly due to the fact that they have Lester and Tampa does not. Maybe a slight edge to the Sox bullpen as well. These bullpens are in many ways reverse images of one another- Red Sox with a great closer but uncertainty in the middle innings/ Rays with great middle relief but uncertainty at closer. We’ll go with the great closer Papelbon and hope that Masterson, Okajima, and Delcarmen can step up against a Rays offense that doesn’t quite scare us. Red Sox could struggle early in this series in Tampa. Edge goes to the Rays in game one with Shields against Matsuzaka. Shields has been a true ace at home this year, much less effective on the road. He can beat Dice-k in game one, particularly if Dice insists walking people as he usually does and putting the speedy Rays on base. Shields will have a much harder time pitching in Fenway if he is called upon to do so as expected in game 5. Even if Boston comes home down 2-0 in this series we still like their chances. Jonny Lester is making postseason magic right now and we’re more than happy to be on his side. RED SOX IN SEVEN. Series and game 1 bets listed below.
SERIES BET: 2 STARS: RED SOX -125
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: TAMPA BAY -110
MLB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES ROUND: SOME THOUGHTS AND SOME PICKS
Lefty Power
NLCS: SERIES PRICE: DODGERS -115/PHILLIES -105
We were all over the Dodgers in round one against a Cubs team that was the darling of the media and the betting public but just didn’t match up well against Joe Torre’s crew. Rock Box Sports cashed a 2 STAR series bet play on LA and also had the Dodgers in games 1 and 2. First instinct was to like Dodgers once again in round two. However, we find ourselves suddenly cramped for room on the Dodger bandwagon as the aforementioned media and public are all piling on board. All those pundits who didn’t have the guts to pick LA over the Cubs are now taking them over the Phils with a zeal that we find downright alarming. Meanwhile, the betting public has come on so strong that they’ve flipped the series price from its original Phils -125/Dodgers +105 to its current Dodgers -115/Phils -105. All of this sudden Dodger hype had us flipping back through our scouting reports and giving the Phillies a second look. One thing we noticed in doing so is that both of these teams, Phils and Dodgers alike, are prone to being offensively neutralized by quality left-handed pitching. Howard and Utley murder righties but are rather pedestrian against southpaws. Meanwhile, some of the key Dodger bats that have been backing up Manny are known to struggle against lefties themselves. This wasn’t a factor for LA against a Cubs team that ran three righties out there before lefty #4 starter Ted Lilly ever saw the mound. However, the Phillies have a lefty ace in Cole Hamels, one who is easily capable of beating the Dodgers twice in this series. And while it is very easy to dismiss a guy like Jamie Moyer – the Dodgers are precisely the type of team that he may have a chance to frustrate, particularly in a pitcher’s park such as Dodger stadium. In contrast to the Phils, the Dodgers have only one lefty starter, and he is not their ace but rather their fourth starter Kershaw, assumimg Torre goes with him over Maddux. Thus, the strength of the Dodger rotation – righties Lowe and Billingsley – will be going up against the strength of a Phillies lineup that mashes righties. Meanwhile, the strength of the Phillies rotation – Hamels – will match up against Dodger vulnerability. If there is one built-in advantage that the Phillies have, this may be it. Actually, now that we take a closer look, Phillies have the better lineup from top to bottom, the better defense, and better bullpen (Lidge lights out for Philly/ Saito may be just plain out altogether for LA). Dodgers have better depth of starting pitching and the far better mananger in Torre. But the Phillies have the lefties. Ultimately, this series breaks down as a tight one, a bit of a toss-up. As stated, we originally liked the Dodgers, but after getting great value (+180) in the Cubs series we are finding none this time around. If anything the value lies with Philly, particularly if the line continues to move. We’ll predict PHILLIES IN SEVEN but are uncertain enough to lay off series bet and take this one game at a time- starting off with Hamels and the under in game 1…
SERIES BET: NONE
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: PHILLIES -130; UNDER 7.5
