MLB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES ROUND: SOME THOUGHTS AND SOME PICKS
Smart Money
As with the Dodgers, we were very strong on the Red Sox in the DS round, cashing our second 2 STAR series bet on Boston. Much like the Dodgers-Cubs series, all the pundits and the majority of the betting public were high on the Angels. However, we are glad to see that these same pundits and public bettors are not flocking to the Red Sox in the CS round as decisively as they are to the Dodgers. The attitude towards Sox-Rays appears much more divided, with plenty jumping on the Tampa wagon. At the Rock Box we’ve never had a doubt that the Rays are the real deal and did not expect a sudden collapse as so many seemed to in the regular season. However, we do believe the Red sox are the better team here. Then again, this is neutralized somewhat by the considerable homefield advantage of the Rays, with 4 of the 7 being played at Tropicana Field. Red Sox will have to steal one in Tampa, no easy task to be sure. But this is where we have to talk about Jon Lester. Lester was the reason the Sox came out on top against Anaheim and he’s the reason we like them here. Quite simply, Jon Lester is the single most dominant pitcher in the American League and probably all of baseball that is still pitching at this moment. Much has been made of the fact that Beckett is no longer Beckett for Boston, but that’s okay, because Lester is filling that role quite nicely. Let Lester be Beckett and then Beckett can be something else, a #2 or #3 guy who you don’t neccessarily rely on but who’s capable of a great performance if it all suddenly clicks. Anyway, back to Lester. The brilliance of the Red Sox starting Lester in game three is that they will then have him available in game seven in Tampa. If the Sox don’t manage to win one on the road before then, they’ll win behind Lester in the last one. Let it further be said that we are not sold on the Tampa Bay offense. Of course they have great speed, but they lack the offensive balance and power that a team like Boston presents. We’ll also give the Sox a slight edge in starting pitching strictly due to the fact that they have Lester and Tampa does not. Maybe a slight edge to the Sox bullpen as well. These bullpens are in many ways reverse images of one another- Red Sox with a great closer but uncertainty in the middle innings/ Rays with great middle relief but uncertainty at closer. We’ll go with the great closer Papelbon and hope that Masterson, Okajima, and Delcarmen can step up against a Rays offense that doesn’t quite scare us. Red Sox could struggle early in this series in Tampa. Edge goes to the Rays in game one with Shields against Matsuzaka. Shields has been a true ace at home this year, much less effective on the road. He can beat Dice-k in game one, particularly if Dice insists walking people as he usually does and putting the speedy Rays on base. Shields will have a much harder time pitching in Fenway if he is called upon to do so as expected in game 5. Even if Boston comes home down 2-0 in this series we still like their chances. Jonny Lester is making postseason magic right now and we’re more than happy to be on his side. RED SOX IN SEVEN. Series and game 1 bets listed below.
SERIES BET: 2 STARS: RED SOX -125
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: TAMPA BAY -110
