MLB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES ROUND: SOME THOUGHTS AND SOME PICKS

Lefty Power

NLCS: SERIES PRICE: DODGERS -115/PHILLIES -105

We were all over the Dodgers in round one against a Cubs team that was the darling of the media and the betting public but just didn’t match up well against Joe Torre’s crew. Rock Box Sports cashed a 2 STAR series bet play on LA and also had the Dodgers in games 1 and 2. First instinct was to like Dodgers once again in round two. However, we find ourselves suddenly cramped for room on the Dodger bandwagon as the aforementioned media and public are all piling on board. All those pundits who didn’t have the guts to pick LA over the Cubs are now taking them over the Phils with a zeal that we find downright alarming. Meanwhile, the betting public has come on so strong that they’ve flipped the series price from its original Phils -125/Dodgers +105 to its current Dodgers -115/Phils -105. All of this sudden Dodger hype had us flipping back through our scouting reports and giving the Phillies a second look. One thing we noticed in doing so is that both of these teams, Phils and Dodgers alike, are prone to being offensively neutralized by quality left-handed pitching. Howard and Utley murder righties but are rather pedestrian against southpaws. Meanwhile, some of the key Dodger bats that have been backing up Manny are known to struggle against lefties themselves. This wasn’t a factor for LA against a Cubs team that ran three righties out there before lefty #4 starter Ted Lilly ever saw the mound. However, the Phillies have a lefty ace in Cole Hamels, one who is easily capable of beating the Dodgers twice in this series. And while it is very easy to dismiss a guy like Jamie Moyer – the Dodgers are precisely the type of team that he may have a chance to frustrate, particularly in a pitcher’s park such as Dodger stadium. In contrast to the Phils, the Dodgers have only one lefty starter, and he is not their ace but rather their fourth starter Kershaw, assumimg Torre goes with him over Maddux. Thus, the strength of the Dodger rotation – righties Lowe and Billingsley – will be going up against the strength of a Phillies lineup that mashes righties. Meanwhile, the strength of the Phillies rotation – Hamels – will match up against Dodger vulnerability. If there is one built-in advantage that the Phillies have, this may be it. Actually, now that we take a closer look, Phillies have the better lineup from top to bottom, the better defense, and better bullpen (Lidge lights out for Philly/ Saito may be just plain out altogether for LA). Dodgers have better depth of starting pitching and the far better mananger in Torre. But the Phillies have the lefties. Ultimately, this series breaks down as a tight one, a bit of a toss-up. As stated, we originally liked the Dodgers, but after getting great value (+180) in the Cubs series we are finding none this time around. If anything the value lies with Philly, particularly if the line continues to move. We’ll predict PHILLIES IN SEVEN but are uncertain enough to lay off series bet and take this one game at a time- starting off with Hamels and the under in game 1…

SERIES BET: NONE
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: PHILLIES -130; UNDER 7.5