November 2008
What bettors need to know: Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Crabtree is having a magical season
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ | November 21, 2008 |
Line moves
The Oklahoma Sooners opened as 6-point favorites and were quickly bet up to -7. After dropping down to -6.5 it has now returned to a touchdown.
The total has climbed steadily to 75 after opening at 68 points.
Against the spread
Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS this season, 3-2 ATS at home. Over the last three years they are 11-5-1 ATS in Norman.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS in 2008, 3-1 ATS on the road. They hold an 8-8 spread mark on the road over the last three seasons.
Head-to-head
The home team is 8-2 in the last ten games in the series. Tech’s only win in Norman came in 1996.
Last year, the Red Raiders torched Oklahoma’s national title hopes by knocking off the Sooners 34-27 in Lubbock. It should be noted, though, that OU quarterback Sam Bradford went down early in that game with a concussion after the team’s second drive.
Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach and Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops are no strangers. Leach served as offensive coordinator under Stoops in 1999-2000.
Stoops to conquer
For those who may be wondering why Oklahoma is a 7-point favorite, consider this: In 10 years with the program, Stoops is 54-2 SU at home. Conversely, Leach is 20-24 SU on the road at Texas Tech (40-10 at home).
Oklahoma holds the nation’s longest home-winning streak at 23 games. Its last loss in Norman came in the 2005 season opener, 17-10 to Texas Christian.
Stoops is also 16-7 off a bye while Leach is 7-6.
The situation
Barring a loss in the regular season finale against Baylor, Tech can clinch a shot at the national title via the Big 12 Championship game with a win over Oklahoma.
If Oklahoma wins, it would set up a three-way tie in the Big 12 South between itself, Texas Tech, and Texas. If all three finish up 7-1 in the league, then the highest ranked team in the BCS will play for the Big 12 championship.
In all likelihood, Oklahoma would be that top-ranked BCS team with a win over Tech and Oklahoma State next week.
QB duel
It doesn’t get any better than this in terms of quarterback play.
Most people know that Red Raiders QB Graham Harrell is having a ridiculous season. He boasts a 71.7 completion percentage, 407 yards per game, 36 touchdown passes and just five picks.
In fact, since throwing three interceptions in the first two games of the season, Harrell has been picked off just twice for a 33-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the last eight games.
Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford might be just as good. He sports a 67.9 completion percentage, 340 yards per game, a 38-6 TD-INT ratio and the No. 2 passing efficiency rating in the nation.
Best in the biz
There’s no question who the best wide receiver in this game is.
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree, according to some, is the best college receiver since Larry Fitzgerald. The reigning Biletnikoff Award winner scorched the Sooners with 12 receptions for 152 yards and one TD last year.
Crabtree has gone 13 consecutive games with at least five receptions and one score. He is one shy of the all-time record held by the aforementioned Mr. Fitzgerald.
Un-Stoops-like D’
Oklahoma is in the middle of the pack nationally in yardage and points allowed per game. Statistically it may be the worst defensive unit of the Stoops era.
Injuries have been a part of the problem. The Sooners lost key linebacker Ryan Reynolds for the season against Texas. They will also be without two members of their four-man defensive end rotation, including preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Auston English.
If there is one bright spot, it may be that the defense has a penchant for big plays. They are first in the nation in turnover ratio, 21st in turnovers generated, third in sacks and ninth in tackles for a loss.
OU special teams struggling
If the Oklahoma defense is average at best, the special teams are downright awful. The team is ranked 108th in kickoff coverage, allowing 25.6 yards per return.
Texas A&M’s Cyrus Gray set an Aggie team record with 261 return yards against the Sooners, including a 98 yard TD return. Oklahoma also allowed TD returns of 97 and 96 yards against Cincinnati and Texas respectively.
The kicking game isn’t much better. Punter Mike Knall averages just 35.8 per kick and the team is ranked 93rd in net punting. Not to be outdone, kicker Jimmy Stevens has missed four extra points and three-of-five field goal attempts from beyond 30 yards.
Stoops is relentlessly working his special teams in practice. He claims they are looking better but it remains to be seen whether it will carry over to game day.
What bettors need to know: Miami at Georgia Tech
Canes come in with the head of steam.
Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3, 40.5)
Head to Head
Georgia Tech holds a 9-4 lead in the all-time series. Tech has won seven of nine, including three in a row. The only other teams to win three in a row against Miami over the last thirty years are FSU, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
Tech comes in with twelve days of rest off a bye last week while Miami has had the usual seven days to prepare after playing last Thursday.
Thursday Night Lights
Georgia Tech has played on Thursday night every year since ’93 but has lost five of its last seven.
The Jackets are going up against a Miami team that is 13-1 all-time on Thursday night after last week’s win over Virginia Tech.
The Situation
Miami comes in on a five game winning streak and it controls its destiny in the Atlantic Coastal division. A win over Tech and then at NC State next week would seal the deal. Also, a win in this game coupled with a North Carolina loss on Saturday would send the Canes to Tampa for the ACC Championship game.
Georgia Tech has an uphill battle in the division. Although it trails Miami by only one game in the loss column with a 4-3 league record, its 1-3 record in the division will make it difficult to win the necessary tie-breakers.
Still, the game is extremely important for both teams in terms of beefing up their bowl prospects.
ATS
Tech comes in 5-2-1 ATS. After covering its first five of the season the Jackets are on an 0-2-1 run over the last three.
Miami is 5-4 ATS.
First you Get the Talent, Then you Get the Experience, Then You Get the Wins
Although the defense has been the driving force behind the current five game win streak, the young offense is improving.
Freshman QB Robert Marve has settled down nicely, throwing no picks against Virginia Tech and only two over the last four games after giving it away eight times in the first six.
RB Graig Cooper has been a steady performer leading the team in rushing TDs and second in receptions.
The unit should get a further boost this week with the return of LT Jason Fox and WR Travis Benjamin from injury.
Lesson Number One: Don’t Underestimate the Option
The Yellow Jackets option attack is ranked eighth in nation in rushing averaging 251 yards per game. However, they have not moved the ball nearly as well over the last few games.
Injuries have been a concern, most notably the loss of All-ACC OT Andrew Gardner for the season. Tech is also banged up at the QB position with starter Josh Nesbitt nursing an ankle injury. While his status remains up in the air, coach Paul Johnson has said he expects Nesbitt to play.
The team would be well-served by getting explosive WR Demaryius Johnson more involved in the offense. The leaky pass protection, though, has made it difficult to get the ball downfield.
Say Hello to my Little Friend: The Miami Defense
Tech’s top-10 rushing offense will be going up against a Canes defense that is ranked 10th nationally itself and very solid against the run.
Miami was outstanding last week holding Virginia Tech to 77 yards rushing. Freshman DE Marcus Robinson led the way with three sacks and seven tackles, including four for a loss.
The young unit will have to play disciplined football against Tech, as Miami has not gone up against an option attack in several years, much less this season or last.
You Wanna Play Rough? Okay. Tech D Can Play Rough Too
The solid Yellow Jacket defense is led by DEs Michael Johnson and Derrick Morgan, both of whom have great size and quickness.
“They’ve got four guys up front who do a great job of causing havoc,” Miami coach Randy Shannon said. “It’s going to be challenge for our offensive line to make sure they stay focused. You may have a negative play here and there, but stay focused and don’t get discourage because we’ve a long time, four quarters of football to play.”
Tech should also benefit greatly this week from the return of CB Jahi Word-Daniels, the only senior in a young secondary.
Lesson Number Two: Kick the Ball High, Let Special Teams Supply Field Position
Miami kicker Matt Bosher, a semi-finalist for the Lou Groza award, could be a key in helping the team establish a field position advantage. Bosher averaged 42 yards a punt on five attempts last week with a long of 45. He was also 3 for 3 on field goal attempts, making him 16 for 18 on the season.
Line Moves
Tech opened as a 3.5-point favorite, moved up to 4 and then back down to 3.5 before settling at 3.
The over/under opened at 40 and has moved up to 40.5.
What Bettors Need to Know: Boston College at Florida State
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ | November 14, 2008 |
Head-to-head
FSU is 4-2 all-time against BC. The road team has won three straight in the series. Last season the Noles won outright as a 6.5-point dog, ending the dream for then undefeated and No. 2 ranked BC.
Line moves
FSU opened as a 7-point favorite, with the line inching downward to 6.5 and then 6 over the course of the week.
The over/under opened at 46.5 and then dipped to 44 on Friday, most likely due at least in part to the announced suspension of the five receivers.
The stakes
Although FSU is 4-2 and tied for first in the ACC Atlantic and BC is in fourth place at 2-3, the Eagles are the ones who control their destiny in the division.
If BC wins its final three against FSU, Wake Forest, and Maryland, the Eagles would hold the tie-breaker against all three and would go to the league championship game.
FSU needs to win its final two league games and then hope for a Wake Forest loss, as Wake holds the tie-breaker due to the Deacs’ 12-3 win over the Noles.
FSU suspensions
Suspensions have been a familiar occurrence in Tallahassee this season. Prior to this week, 16 players had been suspended for at least one game for a variety of reasons.
This week we can add five WRs to the list, suspended as a result of a campus brawl. The list of players out for the BC game includes Taiwan Easterling, Bert Reed, Corey Surrency, Cameron Wade and Richard Goodman.
Easterling, Reed, and Surrency are all significant contributors, having combined for 51 catches, 722 yards, and 8 TDs.
The team will not be completely wiped out at receiver, though. Greg Carr, Rod Owens and Preston Parker are all regular contributors and will be ready to go on Saturday night.
The running game: strength vs. strength
A key to the game will be the matchup of FSU’s running game, 19th in the nation with 205 yards per game, against BC’s 12th ranked rush defense.
All “D” at BC
The Eagle defense has been the savior of the team this season. The defense is ranked in the top 14 in the nation against the run and pass as well as in scoring D, red zone D, and total D.
The Eagles pitched their third shutout of the year last week against Notre Dame.
Third down struggles
Even while winning against the Irish, BC was atrocious on third down. The Eags converted 3 of 14 opportunities last week after going 3 for 18 the week before against Clemson.
This could be a problem against an FSU defense that is holding opponents to an 18 percent conversion rate, allowing only 21 third down conversions on 116 opposing attempts.
A tale of two kickers
FSU should have an advantage in the kicking game. Place kicker Graham Gano has made 17 consecutive field goals including five from 50-plus yards. Gano is a semi-finalist for the Lou Groza award.
In contrast, BC kicker Steve Aponavicius missed two chip shots last week and is in danger of losing his job to freshman Ryan Quigley.
Blackout in Tallahassee
The Noles are the latest team to jump on the “blackout” bandwagon. The team will dress in all black uniforms and the crowd will be asked to wear black for this week’s nationally televised night game at Doak S. Campbell Stadium.
