SUPER BOWL EARLY PREVIEW

Key to the Game: Will Sharper dance on Sunday?

Peyton Manning’s excellence has been apparent over the last two weeks as he has picked apart two very good defenses, distributing the ball efficiently to a stable of receivers that includes both established stars (Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark) and young upstarts (Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie).

The Saints defense has made its living by blitzing the quarterback, but such an approach is potentially suicidal against Manning. On the other hand, the Saints’ opportunistic secondary may have a chance to make a big play. For all the hype about how great he is, Manning did throw 16 interceptions this season, sixth highest in the league. From a numbers standpoint, Drew Brees was actually the better quarterback, with 34 TD passes to Manning’s 33, 11 INT’s to Manning’s 16, and a 106.2 QB rating to Manning’s 99.9.

The ability of the Saints to produce a timely turnover or two will likely be the key to the game. The Saints don’t have a shutdown defense by any means, but they are opportunistic, second in the league in takeaways (39), interceptions (26) and third in turnover ratio at (+11). The importance of the takeway to the New Orleans game was evident in the NFC Championship Game against the Vikings. The Saints wouldn’t be here had they not been able to produce turnovers at pivotal moments. A lot of people have called this “lucky,” but luck has little to do with it. The Saints force turnovers by design.

One problem against the Colts is that Indy fumbled the ball only five times all year, least in the league. The Saints have a much better chance of benefitting from a Manning interception than an Addai fumble. The guy who needs to step up here is Saints safety Darren Sharper. Sharper had nine picks this season, with three returned for touchdowns. Sixth all-time on the interception list, Sharper broke Ed Reed’s record for return yardage in a single season this year with 376. If the Saints are going to win this game, chances are Darren Sharper is going to need to make a big play.

Considering that the Saints struggle mightily to defend the run, however, Indy may utilize the ground game a little more here than we’ve previously seen. Lacking a run-pass balance has been sore spot for the Colts offense. If they solve that problem in the Super Bowl by running effectively against the Saints they’ll be awfully tough to beat.

When the Saints have the ball they’ll use the run as well with an eye towards setting up some big plays downfield. Coach Sean Payton won’t be able to force as many mismatches as usual because the Colts play a lot of zone defense, but he’s extremely creative and effective in finding ways to score in the red zone. The Colts defense has held up nicely in the postseason, but that was against a pair of flawed offenses in the Ravens and Jets. The Saints provide a much stiffer test. As recently as week 15 the Jacksonville Jaguars put up 31 points against the Colts, suggesting some vulnerability. The Colts also struggled to beat the Patriots, a team that the Saints demolished.

Oddsmakers have installed the Colts as a decisive favorite, and, while it’s hard to question that choice, there is plenty of reason to believe that the Saints have a chance to make this interesting. With the two best teams in the league going at it, and two great quarterbacks taking the lead, the makings are there for an all-time classic.