Twins could get CC'ed in the ALDS.

Yankees certainly have questions marks in the rotation beyond C.C. Sabathia but, on balance, they seem to matchup well with the Twins. Joe Mauer and Jim Thome, keys to the Minnesota lineup, are both less effective against lefty pitching, and they’ll likely be facing lefties in four of the five games (should the series go that far). Then again, the Yankees are less effective against lefties themselves and they’ll go up against Francisco Liriano in Game One. But Liriano has struggled down the stretch (as have virtually all of the Minnesota starters) and it’s hard to predict what kind of performance he’ll turn in. Sabathia, on the other hand, has a proven track record of showing up big time under the bright lights in October. Moving beyond Game One it’s hard to get overly excited about Twins pitching. Carl Pavano does it with smoke and mirrors. He could get crushed. Brian Duensing had a solid season, but he’ll have to work on the road here where he’s less effective.

Most importantly of all, the Minnesota bullpen is nothing special. Let’s not forget that Joe Nathan isn’t around this year. The Yankees excel at grinding down starters and then striking against the soft underbelly of the bullpen, so even if the Twins do get solid performances from their starters, they’ll eventually have to go to the pen and they’ll be at a disadvantage when that happens. And even if Andy Pettite and/or Phil Hughes get knocked around the Yankees are more than capable of outscoring Minnesota if that’s what it comes down to.  

The Twins look like the classic example of a team that was built to succeed in the regular season in a mediocre division like the AL Central. In a short playoff series against an AL East power, on the other hand, they look overmatched. Yanks are well-positioned to take care of business here- and then lose in the ALCS to either Tampa Bay or Texas.

The Pick: Yankees in Three.

Where's Don Gullett when you need him- Cincy could use a lefty ace.

This one looks pretty much unbettable, for the series, for Game One, and maybe beyond, with the possible exception of some tasty over/unders- more likely overs- that might emerge when the series moves to Cincy. Do the Reds have a chance? Of course they do. Anything can happen in a short series. Would we be willing to bet on it? Um, no. But neither are we in the habit of laying the kind of money it’s gonna take to back the Phils. In fact, with all the hype coming in on Philly, and with them being the overwhelming consensus pick to win it all, we’ll be looking for an opportunity to go against them at some point- just not here.

There’s no doubt that the Reds have had some kind of magic working for them throughout the season. Their lineup is legit and Aroldis Chapman is a serious weapon who should obliterate Philly’s lefy bats in the late innings. Aside from that, however, they look overmatched in the pitching department. Volquez and Cueto are solid pitchers, but they’re not aces. Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels are. The pitching disparity becomes even more pronounced from there, with Bronson Arroyo going up against Roy Oswalt in Game Three. That one could get ugly. Oh yeah, and the Cincy bullpen isn’t much good beyond Chapman. Philly has a vulnerability to lefties, but the Reds will of course be trotting three righties out to the mound. Not promising.

There’s one scenario in which we can imagine the Reds winning this series. Their one big advantage is that they have virtually no pressure to win with the whole world picking Philly to roll right over them. So here’s the scenario: somehow the Reds manage to steal a game early, the Phillies start to press, they get impatient, start chasing bad pitches, the Reds catch a wave and win it in four back in Cincy.

It’s a thought but, once again, we’re not ready to bet on it.

The Pick: Phillies in Three.

We like left-handed pitching- can you tell?

Interesting series here, in fact these teams are more evenly matched than one might first assume. Both teams have bona fide aces at the front of the rotation followed by solid if not spectacular arms lined up for Games Two and Three. Both have MVP-caliber hitters at the center of their lineups, and each of these hitters is banged up coming in. And both teams have outstanding bullpens- something that will give the winner of this series a major advantage over either the Yankees or Twins in the ALCS. 

Game one matchup between David Price and Cliff Lee will be essential in setting the tone and giving one side a huge advantage moving forward. Lee’s an outstanding pitcher and his postseason exploits are well-known, but Price was the better of the two this season- and he’s pitching at home where he sported a 1.96 ERA in 2010. Lee, on the other hand, was not quite as sharp on the road as he was at home. And let’s not forget that Price racked up his superior numbers pitching against AL East competition while Lee was pitching in the AL West. Also, it’s worth noting that Longoria and B.J. Upton crush lefties while, conversely, Texas’ Josh Hamilton has a weak spot against strong lefty pitching. This adds up to an advantage for Price and the Rays over Lee and the Rangers in Game One- and in the second game that Price pitches in the series as well, particularly if it’s a Game Five in Tampa.

If Lee does manage to steal Game One, then watch out, Rays could be in trouble as the the Game Two and Three pitching matchups look like tossups, with slight edges maybe even going to Texas. If Longoria’s level of play is impacted by injury while Hamilton’s is not, that would also give the Rangers a huge advantage. However, while possible, those are very big “ifs.” Price might have to win two games to do it but, once again, with Hamilton less of a factor against lefties, and with the Rays much more likely to manufacture runs even if they face good pitching performances, Tampa gets the edge- albeit a slight one. Indeed, it is this ability to manufacture runs that tilts the balance towards the Rays in what could be a very tight series. 

Either way, whoever comes out ahead will be tough to beat in the ALCS with their tough lefty pitching and outstanding bullpen. My inclination is to say that the winner of this series- Tampa or Texas- will be my pick to go the World Series and quite possibly win it all.

Series Pick: Tampa Bay in Five.

Game One: Tampa Bay