2011 College Football Picks
Weds December 21:
3 Stars: LA TECH +10
2011 College Football Bowl Picks!!!
This is one of our favorite times of years at Rock Box Sports. We’ve got a track record of success over the years, looking to do it again 2011-12. Jump on board the ride starts here with our picks for Saturday December 17, 2011 and Tuesday December 20:
2 Stars: WYOMING +7
1 Star: OHIO +1.5
1 Star: MARSHALL +4.5
Boise State Blinks: Brilliant Two-Year Run Comes to an End
Is there such a thing as better than perfect?
Sublime, maybe?
Because that’s what Boise State had to be this year. Oregon and Auburn have had the luxury of just being perfect. For those teams, running the gauntlet of a big-time schedule and winning every game has been enough. Even by the skin of their teeth, as Auburn did against Alabama. Even while getting the lucky break of having an opposing kicker gift wrap a win, as Oregon did against Cal.
Not so for Boise.
Perfect?
Been there, done that. The Broncos were 14-0 last year. But it wasn’t enough. Not for the BCS system. Not for the Boise fans. Not for this team. Last year’s perfection was just a stepping stone. This year they wanted something more. The National Championship.
And for that happen, this team would have to be better than perfect.
Week in, week out, the Broncos have been faced with the task of not only beating their opponents, but eviscerating them. Owning them. Never letting up. Not a single player. Not a single moment.
Better than perfect.
Wrap your mind around that.
Oregon- a team that Boise has beaten each of the last two years- had the luxury of sleepwalking through a game against highly suspect Washington State and coming out ahead.
No one questioned it.
Auburn had to squeak by against Mississippi State (17-14), Clemson (27-24 OT) and Kentucky (37-34).
As long as they stayed perfect it was enough.
For Boise, strangely enough, despite a schedule loaded with cupcakes, there haven’t really been any days off. The bigger the cupcake, the bigger the pressure on Boise not just to win, but to dominate.
And all year long they met this challenge with relish. After pulling victory out of the jaws of defeat against Virginia Tech and following up with a solid win over Oregon State, they went on a rampage, answering their critics as forcefully and completely as they possibly could have, to the tune of 59-0 (New Mexico State), 48-0 (San Jose State), 42-7 (Hawaii), 52-14 (Idaho) and then, perhaps most shocking of all, a 51-0 pasting of a not-so-bad Fresno St. program with a well-earned rep for hanging with the big boys.
Not just a physical test for Boise, really, but a mental one.
It had to make you wonder. How long could they keep it up? At what point would the psychological burden of being better than perfect, a burden that grew exponentially every week as they moved within range of the BCS top two, become too much to bear?
At what point would it all come crashing down?
On Saturday night in Reno we got our answer.
Somewhere in the fourth quarter we discovered that this would be no blowout. Boise, for once, would not be better than perfect.
It seemed like a defeat in itself.
But, still, there was the chance, or should we say the expectation, of being at least perfect.
And right up until the bitter end it looked as if they would be. It looked that way when Doug Martin took a screen pass 79 yards to the bank, putting Boise up seven with 4:53 left. And it certainly looked that way when the Kellen Moore hit a diving Titus Young inside the ten, setting up a chip shot for perfection with exactly :01 on the clock.
And then it happened. As Kyle Brotzman lined up for the kick, reality set in. Not the reality of being not good enough. The reality of recognizing that ungodly expectations, the hopes of an entire team, university, city and state, a dream three years in the making, were now riding on your shoulders.
For Brotzman, in that moment, and once again in overtime, it was too much.
Wide right.
Finally, sadly, after 24 consecutive wins dating back to last year, after a 36-1 run since 2008 (the only blemish being a 17-16 loss to TCU in the ’09 Poinsettia Bowl), after a string of heroic beatdowns in 2010, Boise blinked.
Better than perfect.
They gave it a good run.
WHO’S GOING TO WIN THE FIESTA BOWL? ROCK BOX PICK AND ANALYSIS OF TCU VS. BOISE STATE
January 4, 2010, Glendale, Arizona
Psychology: Extremely complex psychological situation here- two undefeated teams from outside the BCS establishment seek revenge against the big boys by facing off against…each other? Hmmmm. How’s that supposed to work? Kind of a no-win situation for the mid-majors- the loser drops down a notch and the winner doesn’t really prove anything vis-à-vis the BCS system that excluded them. In looking for the psychological edge, let’s remember that, while TCU was at least considered a reasonable candidate for the BCS Championship game, equally undefeated Boise State wasn’t even in the conversation. This gives the Broncos a reason to hate TCU. TCU, on the other hand, is busy hating Texas. And therein lies the dilemma- they’re not playing Texas. Advantage Boise.
What to Expect from TCU: Perfection. At least that’s what’s they’ve delivered so far. This is a team seemingly without a weakness. They finished fifth in the nation in total offense. They finished first in the nation in defense (third against the run, fourth against the pass). Once again, that’s not in the conference, that’s not among non-BCS schools, that’s in the nation. They had the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in QB Andy Dalton and they had not only the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, but the winner of the Ted Hendricks Award given to the nation’s best defensive end in Jerry Hughes. The offense has great balance, with a stable of effective backs and receivers who all share a piece of the action due to the efficient execution and decision-making ability of Dalton (22 TD’s, 5 picks). The defense has incredible speed, which they used to hold every team on their schedule below their season averages with four teams relegated to their season-worst yardage output.
What to Expect from Boise State: Boise does almost everything well. Emphasis here on almost. Hard to argue with their offense, which led the nation with 44.2 points per game. While TCU’s Dalton is impressive for his efficiency on offense, Boise’s Kellen Moore is even better, with the nation’s best QB rating and a TD-INT ratio of 39-3. Defensively, on the other hand, Boise has shown some alarming vulnerabilities later in the season. After an outstanding early performance in the season-opening win over Oregon, the Broncos regressed. The only thing that saved them was their ability to force turnovers (21 in the last seven games). But can they expect to live off the turnover against TCU? It’s also worth noting that Boise is the less healthy team here, expected to be without a starter at fullback, another at middle linebacker, a top-four running back and a top-three receiver.
Prediction: Both teams are efficient and productive on offense, but TCU holds a significant advantage defensively. They key will be turnovers. While Dalton takes care of the ball, the Horned Frogs have shown a propensity for the fumble (six lost in the last three games). Considering Boise’s proven ability to create turnovers, this is a concern. Boise State 34-24.
Power and speed: TCU's Jerry Hughes
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU
Beware the Trap: Don’t Sleep on Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl
Snead and Ole Miss are the Real Deal
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Rockboxsports.com
All season long (with the lone exception of the Oklahoma game) we’ve seen Graham Harrell and company tearing through Big 12 defenses to the tune of 45 points and 536 yards per game. They run the ball, they throw the ball, the offensive line is massive, Crabtree is unstoppable, Leach is a genius. Yadda yadda yadda.
Let the masses chew on all that while the rest of us take a look beyond the hype. Mississippi is a very good football team, quite possibly the most underrated in the nation. This is no bunch of scrappy overachievers but, rather, a balanced, well-coached team with first-rate talent. Though their record stands at 8-4, they could very easily be 11-1, having lost several tight games early in the season. It was during this time that the young Rebels were learning how to win. Now they come in with the momentum of a five-game winning streak, including wins over Florida and LSU on the road. Lesson learned.
The big difference for Mississippi has been the arrival of new coach Houston Nutt. Nutt developed a well-deserved reputation as a giant killer at Arkansas. You think Texas Tech scares them? This is a team that won in The Swamp. They’re not afraid to go up against Tech and neither should you be when it comes time to lay the money.
On offense, the Rebels feature a balanced attack, led by QB Jevan Snead, a Texastransfer and big-time recruit. In his first year as a starter he has blossomed during the current five game winning streak, compiling a 13-2 TD-INT ratio in that span. Snead has a reliable stable of receivers and running backs. The team has established an excellent balance of run and pass behind an offensive line led by Michael Oher, an Outland Trophy finalist and surefire first rounder in the coming NFL draft.
But will the Rebel “D” be able to contend with the vaunted Red Raider attack? The key will likely be whether the defensive line can mount pressure on Harrell. While the Mississippi secondary is not as weak as some have claimed, it is certainly true that the strength of the Rebel “D” lies in the defensive line. Given the time, Harrell might well pick Ole Miss apart. Much has been made of the Texas Tech offensive line’s ability to protect the QB. Indeed, considering the frequency with which Harrell drops back to pass, the total of eleven sacks allowed on the season seems daunting. A closer look, however, offers some hope for the Rebels. Of the eleven sacks allowed, ten came in the final five games when the competition got tougher. Against the only two frontline defenses they faced, Tech allowed three sacks versus Oklahoma and two versus Texas. Another three were served up in the season finale against Baylor.
In short: don’t believe they hype. Ole Miss stands an excellent chance of disrupting Harrell’s rhythm. The fact that the Cotton Bowl is played on grass can only help the Rebels as well. While both Mississippi and Tech play their home games on turf, the Mississippigame translates much better to grass.
We’d love to think that the Rebels might have a motivation edge as well. Considering that just a few weeks ago the Raiders were thinking national title, that could be the case. Then again, Harrell’s snub by the Heisman committee, and the fact that many Techsters hail from the Dallas area (including Harrell and Crabtree), should give the team a reason to show up.
In order to win this one, then, the Rebels just might have to be the better team. And, you know what, it’s distinctly possible that they are. Look for Ole Miss to control the ball on offense, running behind Oher and spreading the ball around to a diverse set of weapons. On defense, the Rebs can’t hope to stop Tech, but they can slow them down. It says here that the d-line will get enough pressure on Harrell to disrupt his rhythm and make a couple key stops when needed. If it comes down to a field goal, Miss will have the edge with all-SEC kicker Joshua Shene.
34-31 Mississippi.
