Beware the Trap: Don’t Sleep on Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl
Snead and Ole Miss are the Real Deal
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Rockboxsports.com
All season long (with the lone exception of the Oklahoma game) we’ve seen Graham Harrell and company tearing through Big 12 defenses to the tune of 45 points and 536 yards per game. They run the ball, they throw the ball, the offensive line is massive, Crabtree is unstoppable, Leach is a genius. Yadda yadda yadda.
Let the masses chew on all that while the rest of us take a look beyond the hype. Mississippi is a very good football team, quite possibly the most underrated in the nation. This is no bunch of scrappy overachievers but, rather, a balanced, well-coached team with first-rate talent. Though their record stands at 8-4, they could very easily be 11-1, having lost several tight games early in the season. It was during this time that the young Rebels were learning how to win. Now they come in with the momentum of a five-game winning streak, including wins over Florida and LSU on the road. Lesson learned.
The big difference for Mississippi has been the arrival of new coach Houston Nutt. Nutt developed a well-deserved reputation as a giant killer at Arkansas. You think Texas Tech scares them? This is a team that won in The Swamp. They’re not afraid to go up against Tech and neither should you be when it comes time to lay the money.
On offense, the Rebels feature a balanced attack, led by QB Jevan Snead, a Texastransfer and big-time recruit. In his first year as a starter he has blossomed during the current five game winning streak, compiling a 13-2 TD-INT ratio in that span. Snead has a reliable stable of receivers and running backs. The team has established an excellent balance of run and pass behind an offensive line led by Michael Oher, an Outland Trophy finalist and surefire first rounder in the coming NFL draft.
But will the Rebel “D” be able to contend with the vaunted Red Raider attack? The key will likely be whether the defensive line can mount pressure on Harrell. While the Mississippi secondary is not as weak as some have claimed, it is certainly true that the strength of the Rebel “D” lies in the defensive line. Given the time, Harrell might well pick Ole Miss apart. Much has been made of the Texas Tech offensive line’s ability to protect the QB. Indeed, considering the frequency with which Harrell drops back to pass, the total of eleven sacks allowed on the season seems daunting. A closer look, however, offers some hope for the Rebels. Of the eleven sacks allowed, ten came in the final five games when the competition got tougher. Against the only two frontline defenses they faced, Tech allowed three sacks versus Oklahoma and two versus Texas. Another three were served up in the season finale against Baylor.
In short: don’t believe they hype. Ole Miss stands an excellent chance of disrupting Harrell’s rhythm. The fact that the Cotton Bowl is played on grass can only help the Rebels as well. While both Mississippi and Tech play their home games on turf, the Mississippigame translates much better to grass.
We’d love to think that the Rebels might have a motivation edge as well. Considering that just a few weeks ago the Raiders were thinking national title, that could be the case. Then again, Harrell’s snub by the Heisman committee, and the fact that many Techsters hail from the Dallas area (including Harrell and Crabtree), should give the team a reason to show up.
In order to win this one, then, the Rebels just might have to be the better team. And, you know what, it’s distinctly possible that they are. Look for Ole Miss to control the ball on offense, running behind Oher and spreading the ball around to a diverse set of weapons. On defense, the Rebs can’t hope to stop Tech, but they can slow them down. It says here that the d-line will get enough pressure on Harrell to disrupt his rhythm and make a couple key stops when needed. If it comes down to a field goal, Miss will have the edge with all-SEC kicker Joshua Shene.
34-31 Mississippi.
What bettors need to know: Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Crabtree is having a magical season
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ | November 21, 2008 |
Line moves
The Oklahoma Sooners opened as 6-point favorites and were quickly bet up to -7. After dropping down to -6.5 it has now returned to a touchdown.
The total has climbed steadily to 75 after opening at 68 points.
Against the spread
Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS this season, 3-2 ATS at home. Over the last three years they are 11-5-1 ATS in Norman.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS in 2008, 3-1 ATS on the road. They hold an 8-8 spread mark on the road over the last three seasons.
Head-to-head
The home team is 8-2 in the last ten games in the series. Tech’s only win in Norman came in 1996.
Last year, the Red Raiders torched Oklahoma’s national title hopes by knocking off the Sooners 34-27 in Lubbock. It should be noted, though, that OU quarterback Sam Bradford went down early in that game with a concussion after the team’s second drive.
Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach and Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops are no strangers. Leach served as offensive coordinator under Stoops in 1999-2000.
Stoops to conquer
For those who may be wondering why Oklahoma is a 7-point favorite, consider this: In 10 years with the program, Stoops is 54-2 SU at home. Conversely, Leach is 20-24 SU on the road at Texas Tech (40-10 at home).
Oklahoma holds the nation’s longest home-winning streak at 23 games. Its last loss in Norman came in the 2005 season opener, 17-10 to Texas Christian.
Stoops is also 16-7 off a bye while Leach is 7-6.
The situation
Barring a loss in the regular season finale against Baylor, Tech can clinch a shot at the national title via the Big 12 Championship game with a win over Oklahoma.
If Oklahoma wins, it would set up a three-way tie in the Big 12 South between itself, Texas Tech, and Texas. If all three finish up 7-1 in the league, then the highest ranked team in the BCS will play for the Big 12 championship.
In all likelihood, Oklahoma would be that top-ranked BCS team with a win over Tech and Oklahoma State next week.
QB duel
It doesn’t get any better than this in terms of quarterback play.
Most people know that Red Raiders QB Graham Harrell is having a ridiculous season. He boasts a 71.7 completion percentage, 407 yards per game, 36 touchdown passes and just five picks.
In fact, since throwing three interceptions in the first two games of the season, Harrell has been picked off just twice for a 33-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the last eight games.
Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford might be just as good. He sports a 67.9 completion percentage, 340 yards per game, a 38-6 TD-INT ratio and the No. 2 passing efficiency rating in the nation.
Best in the biz
There’s no question who the best wide receiver in this game is.
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree, according to some, is the best college receiver since Larry Fitzgerald. The reigning Biletnikoff Award winner scorched the Sooners with 12 receptions for 152 yards and one TD last year.
Crabtree has gone 13 consecutive games with at least five receptions and one score. He is one shy of the all-time record held by the aforementioned Mr. Fitzgerald.
Un-Stoops-like D’
Oklahoma is in the middle of the pack nationally in yardage and points allowed per game. Statistically it may be the worst defensive unit of the Stoops era.
Injuries have been a part of the problem. The Sooners lost key linebacker Ryan Reynolds for the season against Texas. They will also be without two members of their four-man defensive end rotation, including preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Auston English.
If there is one bright spot, it may be that the defense has a penchant for big plays. They are first in the nation in turnover ratio, 21st in turnovers generated, third in sacks and ninth in tackles for a loss.
OU special teams struggling
If the Oklahoma defense is average at best, the special teams are downright awful. The team is ranked 108th in kickoff coverage, allowing 25.6 yards per return.
Texas A&M’s Cyrus Gray set an Aggie team record with 261 return yards against the Sooners, including a 98 yard TD return. Oklahoma also allowed TD returns of 97 and 96 yards against Cincinnati and Texas respectively.
The kicking game isn’t much better. Punter Mike Knall averages just 35.8 per kick and the team is ranked 93rd in net punting. Not to be outdone, kicker Jimmy Stevens has missed four extra points and three-of-five field goal attempts from beyond 30 yards.
Stoops is relentlessly working his special teams in practice. He claims they are looking better but it remains to be seen whether it will carry over to game day.
What bettors need to know: Miami at Georgia Tech
Canes come in with the head of steam.
Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3, 40.5)
Head to Head
Georgia Tech holds a 9-4 lead in the all-time series. Tech has won seven of nine, including three in a row. The only other teams to win three in a row against Miami over the last thirty years are FSU, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
Tech comes in with twelve days of rest off a bye last week while Miami has had the usual seven days to prepare after playing last Thursday.
Thursday Night Lights
Georgia Tech has played on Thursday night every year since ’93 but has lost five of its last seven.
The Jackets are going up against a Miami team that is 13-1 all-time on Thursday night after last week’s win over Virginia Tech.
The Situation
Miami comes in on a five game winning streak and it controls its destiny in the Atlantic Coastal division. A win over Tech and then at NC State next week would seal the deal. Also, a win in this game coupled with a North Carolina loss on Saturday would send the Canes to Tampa for the ACC Championship game.
Georgia Tech has an uphill battle in the division. Although it trails Miami by only one game in the loss column with a 4-3 league record, its 1-3 record in the division will make it difficult to win the necessary tie-breakers.
Still, the game is extremely important for both teams in terms of beefing up their bowl prospects.
ATS
Tech comes in 5-2-1 ATS. After covering its first five of the season the Jackets are on an 0-2-1 run over the last three.
Miami is 5-4 ATS.
First you Get the Talent, Then you Get the Experience, Then You Get the Wins
Although the defense has been the driving force behind the current five game win streak, the young offense is improving.
Freshman QB Robert Marve has settled down nicely, throwing no picks against Virginia Tech and only two over the last four games after giving it away eight times in the first six.
RB Graig Cooper has been a steady performer leading the team in rushing TDs and second in receptions.
The unit should get a further boost this week with the return of LT Jason Fox and WR Travis Benjamin from injury.
Lesson Number One: Don’t Underestimate the Option
The Yellow Jackets option attack is ranked eighth in nation in rushing averaging 251 yards per game. However, they have not moved the ball nearly as well over the last few games.
Injuries have been a concern, most notably the loss of All-ACC OT Andrew Gardner for the season. Tech is also banged up at the QB position with starter Josh Nesbitt nursing an ankle injury. While his status remains up in the air, coach Paul Johnson has said he expects Nesbitt to play.
The team would be well-served by getting explosive WR Demaryius Johnson more involved in the offense. The leaky pass protection, though, has made it difficult to get the ball downfield.
Say Hello to my Little Friend: The Miami Defense
Tech’s top-10 rushing offense will be going up against a Canes defense that is ranked 10th nationally itself and very solid against the run.
Miami was outstanding last week holding Virginia Tech to 77 yards rushing. Freshman DE Marcus Robinson led the way with three sacks and seven tackles, including four for a loss.
The young unit will have to play disciplined football against Tech, as Miami has not gone up against an option attack in several years, much less this season or last.
You Wanna Play Rough? Okay. Tech D Can Play Rough Too
The solid Yellow Jacket defense is led by DEs Michael Johnson and Derrick Morgan, both of whom have great size and quickness.
“They’ve got four guys up front who do a great job of causing havoc,” Miami coach Randy Shannon said. “It’s going to be challenge for our offensive line to make sure they stay focused. You may have a negative play here and there, but stay focused and don’t get discourage because we’ve a long time, four quarters of football to play.”
Tech should also benefit greatly this week from the return of CB Jahi Word-Daniels, the only senior in a young secondary.
Lesson Number Two: Kick the Ball High, Let Special Teams Supply Field Position
Miami kicker Matt Bosher, a semi-finalist for the Lou Groza award, could be a key in helping the team establish a field position advantage. Bosher averaged 42 yards a punt on five attempts last week with a long of 45. He was also 3 for 3 on field goal attempts, making him 16 for 18 on the season.
Line Moves
Tech opened as a 3.5-point favorite, moved up to 4 and then back down to 3.5 before settling at 3.
The over/under opened at 40 and has moved up to 40.5.
What Bettors Need to Know: Boston College at Florida State
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ | November 14, 2008 |
Head-to-head
FSU is 4-2 all-time against BC. The road team has won three straight in the series. Last season the Noles won outright as a 6.5-point dog, ending the dream for then undefeated and No. 2 ranked BC.
Line moves
FSU opened as a 7-point favorite, with the line inching downward to 6.5 and then 6 over the course of the week.
The over/under opened at 46.5 and then dipped to 44 on Friday, most likely due at least in part to the announced suspension of the five receivers.
The stakes
Although FSU is 4-2 and tied for first in the ACC Atlantic and BC is in fourth place at 2-3, the Eagles are the ones who control their destiny in the division.
If BC wins its final three against FSU, Wake Forest, and Maryland, the Eagles would hold the tie-breaker against all three and would go to the league championship game.
FSU needs to win its final two league games and then hope for a Wake Forest loss, as Wake holds the tie-breaker due to the Deacs’ 12-3 win over the Noles.
FSU suspensions
Suspensions have been a familiar occurrence in Tallahassee this season. Prior to this week, 16 players had been suspended for at least one game for a variety of reasons.
This week we can add five WRs to the list, suspended as a result of a campus brawl. The list of players out for the BC game includes Taiwan Easterling, Bert Reed, Corey Surrency, Cameron Wade and Richard Goodman.
Easterling, Reed, and Surrency are all significant contributors, having combined for 51 catches, 722 yards, and 8 TDs.
The team will not be completely wiped out at receiver, though. Greg Carr, Rod Owens and Preston Parker are all regular contributors and will be ready to go on Saturday night.
The running game: strength vs. strength
A key to the game will be the matchup of FSU’s running game, 19th in the nation with 205 yards per game, against BC’s 12th ranked rush defense.
All “D” at BC
The Eagle defense has been the savior of the team this season. The defense is ranked in the top 14 in the nation against the run and pass as well as in scoring D, red zone D, and total D.
The Eagles pitched their third shutout of the year last week against Notre Dame.
Third down struggles
Even while winning against the Irish, BC was atrocious on third down. The Eags converted 3 of 14 opportunities last week after going 3 for 18 the week before against Clemson.
This could be a problem against an FSU defense that is holding opponents to an 18 percent conversion rate, allowing only 21 third down conversions on 116 opposing attempts.
A tale of two kickers
FSU should have an advantage in the kicking game. Place kicker Graham Gano has made 17 consecutive field goals including five from 50-plus yards. Gano is a semi-finalist for the Lou Groza award.
In contrast, BC kicker Steve Aponavicius missed two chip shots last week and is in danger of losing his job to freshman Ryan Quigley.
Blackout in Tallahassee
The Noles are the latest team to jump on the “blackout” bandwagon. The team will dress in all black uniforms and the crowd will be asked to wear black for this week’s nationally televised night game at Doak S. Campbell Stadium.
WHAT BETTORS NEED TO KNOW: KANSAS STATE AT LOUISVILLE
What Bettors Need to Know: Kansas State at Louisville
On the Road Again
Kansas State third-year coach Ron Price is 10-4 at home,
2-8 on the road.
However, Price’s Wildcats did upset then-#7 ranked Texas in Austin as a 14.5 point dog last season.
Young Guns
With only nine returning starters, Louisville is one of the more inexperienced teams in the country.
QB Hunter Cantwell becomes the starter after performing well in a backup role for Brian Brohm over the last two seasons. Despite being a first-year starter, Cantwell is strong-armed with good size and is considered a legit NFL prospect.
With new starters at every other skill position, though, the Cardinal offense struggled mightily in the season-opening 27-2 loss to Kentucky.
JUCO Infusion
Although Bill Snyder has been gone for three years, current K State coach Price has continued Snyder’s tradition of recruiting heavily from the JUCO ranks. This year the team welcomes sixteen JUCO transfers.
Another Snyder tradition that Price has kept intact is the practice of scheduling non-conference cupcakes to start the season.
Price has used the season-opening blowouts of North Texas (45-6) and Montana State (69-10) to evaluate the new talent he has on the roster.
Getting Defensive in Louisville
While the Cardinal offense looked awful against Kentucky, the defense actually held up quite well against SEC competition.
Although Kentucky put 27 points on the board, they scored twice on fumble returns and set up a third score with an interception.
Injury Report
Louisville saw their only two returning starters on the offensive line miss the second half of their week two 51-10 win over Tennessee Tech.
The status of first team Big East center Eric Wood, an All-American candidate, as well as LT George Bussey, remains unknown at this time.
It would be a significant blow to the team’s offense if one or both misses the Kansas State game.
Line Moves
Covers.com reports that the line opened at 4, was bet down to 3.5 quickly, and then settled back at 4.
The over/under opened at 57.5 and has been bet down to 56.
WHAT BETTORS NEED TO KNOW: WEST VIRGINIA AT COLORADO
What Bettors Need to Know: West Virginia at Colorado
Long-Term Deal
West Virginia eliminated any speculation about the depth of its commitment to new coach Bill Stewart by signing Stewart to a six year contract starting at $800,000 this year and increasing $50,000 annually.
Stewart will be coaching his first game with his newfound security, as the deal was just announced days ago.
Dissing the Buffs
After defeating in-state rival Colorado State 38-17 in the opener, Colorado looked sloppy two weeks ago in barely defeating Eastern Washington 31-24.
The Buffaloes trailed 21-7 at the half and only secured victory with a late interception return for a touchdown.
Said Eastern Washington defensive back Ryan Kelley: “I don’t like to talk bad about teams, but they aren’t going to get far in the Big-12. They aren’t playing like a Big-12 team. They’re playing like a Big Sky team.”
Colorado coach Dan Hawkins hinted that his team’s poor performance had more to do with complacency. “We always tell our guys not to get caught up in the decal on the side of the helmet,” said Hawkins. “(But) it’s hard a lot of times when you have young guys.”
When it’s Time to Change…You’ve got to Rearrange
West Virginia opened the season in a state of transition from the spread offense of former coach Rich Rodriguez to a more pass-oriented pro-style offense. The change comes with an entirely new set of terminology for players to master.
The difficulties of this transition were evident in the team’s 24-3 loss to East Carolina. This marked the first time since a 45-3 loss to Miami in 2001 (Rodriguez’s first year) that the Mountaineers failed to score a touchdown.
While West Virginia has one of the most heralded offensive lines in the country, they are accustomed aggressive run-blocking with zone schemes as opposed to the pass-blocking skills that the new system calls for.
Mountaineer offensive linemen are making no excuses for their poor performance against East Carolina, however, and are seeking redemption against Colorado.
Devine Involvement
Stewart has indicated his intention to re-emphasize the power running game against Colorado.
In the team’s first two games, QB Pat White has thrown 51 times, by far the greatest two game total of his three-year tenure as starter. In turn, explosive running back Noel Devine is averaging just 10.5 carries a game.
“He needs to get the ball more,” says Stewart.
Look for a heavy dose of Devine on Thursday. Stewart has also hinted that we can expect the option to emerge as a new weapon for White and Devine.
Pass Heavy in Boulder
The Colorado offense has been even more conspicuously imbalanced towards the pass. QB Cody Hawkins has thrown for 475 yards with two TD’s and a 71.8 completion percentage.
Meanwhile, the running game is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry – 90th in the nation.
Freshman Fifteen
Colorado Freshman running back Darrell Scott was one of the most highly touted recruits in the nation out of St. Bonaventure High School in Ventura, California. In his junior year Scott rushed for over 3000 yards, a ridiculous 9.5 yards per carry, and 45 touchdowns.
Without playing a game Scott was named second-team pre-season All-Big-12 by Phil Steele’s College Football Preview.
After showing up at camp twenty pounds over his playing weight of 205, Scott has already lost fifteen pounds. Despite not being in his best shape, he has been the Buffs leading rusher thus far and has shown flashes of what many believe is the greatness to come.
Said Scott, “I’m getting faster each week, and when I get to 205, if I get to 205, it’s going to be bad. It’s going to be like high school all over again with my speed.”
A Tale of Two D’s
Defense has been a bright spot for Colorado thus far. The Buffs are allowing an average of just 59 yards on the ground and held Eastern Washington to three points in the second half.
West Virginia, on the other hand, has appeared lost on defense, particularly by their recent standards. Through the first two games, against Villanova and Eastern Washington no less, the Mountaineers have allowed teams to convert fifteen of thirty third down attempts.
Of particular concern is a young secondary that allowed Villanova to go 21-27 through the air for 266 yards and East Carolina 22-28 for 236.
This could be troublesome against Colorado’s pass-happy offense.
Altitude
Several Mountaineer players have become enamored of a special training box left over from the Rodriguez era that is supposed to make players more accustomed to high altitude conditions.
West Virginia coach Stewart downplays the issue and states that he does not expect Boulder’s mile-high altitude to present a problem.
Line Moves
The line opened at 3, dipped briefly to 2.5, and then returned to 3.
The over/under was initially set at 56.5 and has since moved up to 57.
WHAT BETTORS NEED TO KNOW: KANSAS STATE AT LOUISVILLE
What Bettors Need to Know: Kansas State at Louisville
On the Road Again
Kansas State third-year coach Ron Price is 10-4 at home,
2-8 on the road.
However, Price’s Wildcats did upset then-#7 ranked Texas in Austin as a 14.5 point dog last season.
Young Guns
With only nine returning starters, Louisville is one of the more inexperienced teams in the country.
QB Hunter Cantwell becomes the starter after performing well in a backup role for Brian Brohm over the last two seasons. Despite being a first-year starter, Cantwell is strong-armed with good size and is considered a legit NFL prospect.
With new starters at every other skill position, though, the Cardinal offense struggled mightily in the season-opening 27-2 loss to Kentucky.
JUCO Infusion
Although Bill Snyder has been gone for three years, current K State coach Price has continued Snyder’s tradition of recruiting heavily from the JUCO ranks. This year the team welcomes sixteen JUCO transfers.
Another Snyder tradition that Price has kept intact is the practice of scheduling non-conference cupcakes to start the season.
Price has used the season-opening blowouts of North Texas (45-6) and Montana State (69-10) to evaluate the new talent he has on the roster.
Getting Defensive in Louisville
While the Cardinal offense looked awful against Kentucky, the defense actually held up quite well against SEC competition.
Although Kentucky put 27 points on the board, they scored twice on fumble returns and set up a third score with an interception.
Injury Report
Louisville saw their only two returning starters on the offensive line miss the second half of their week two 51-10 win over Tennessee Tech.
The status of first team Big East center Eric Wood, an All-American candidate, as well as LT George Bussey, remains unknown at this time.
It would be a significant blow to the team’s offense if one or both misses the Kansas State game.
Line Moves
Covers.com reports that the line opened at 4, was bet down to 3.5 quickly, and then settled back at 4.
The over/under opened at 57.5 and has been bet down to 56.
