Top Plays of NFL Week One: Over/Unders
Pittsburgh/Baltimore OVER 36:
Traditionally a low-scoring matchup, but look for this week’s game to divert from the trend. Both defenses have big names, but they’re also aging rapidly- two of the oldest defenses in the league. Meanwhile, the offenses are stocked with dynamic young playmakers. This is particularly true of the Steelers, who hold the potential to field one of the more explosive passing attacks in team history. Roethlisberger goes big in this one, and Flacco, Ray Rice and company put up a few points of their own. Forget the history- this one goes over easy.
New England/Miami UNDER 45.5: The Dolphins defense is better than you think- but their offtense is every bit as bad as you think. Meanwhile, the Pats look to be much improved on defense with a beefed up d-line and good young players like devin mccourty, patrick chung and jermaine cunningham emerging rapidly. Offensively, Pats may be a tad unsettled along the offensive line and in the receiving corps. Miami has enough on “D” to slow them down a bit and on the flipside New England’s new look defense should be able to handle Henne and company. It all adds up to a lower scoring game than one might think.
Week One Hilton Contest Picks for rockboxsports.com:
St. Louis, Buffalo, Washington, Carolina, Cincinnati
NFL Playoff Preview and Prediction: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
In a league where just about every team has a significant flaw, the Atlanta Falcons were able to secure a number one seed with a style most accurately described by Mike Tanier of the New York Times’ Fifth Down Blog as “blandly efficient.” The Falcons are solid pretty much across the board, but they are hardly spectacular. The one exception might be Roddy White, but he’s a bit banged up here and will certainly attract plenty of attention from a talented Green Bay defensive backfield. Even more ominous for Atlanta is the fact that they have not run the ball as well in the latter part of the season. This is an offense that put up 14 points at home against a New Orleans defense that got torched by the Seattle Seahawks last week. Green Bay has far more talent on defense than the Saints, and the recipe for slowing down or maybe even shutting down the Falcon offense looks pretty clear: blanket White and stack the box against the run. Meanwhile, we haven’t even mentioned the dynamic Packer offense. Aaron Rodgers has been hot and unlike Atlanta’s Matt Ryan he has no shortage of weapons to work with. The big story here, however, could be the emergence of James Starks as a legitimate running threat, perhaps the only key piece that the Packers have been lacking this season. The only question mark for Green Bay is the questionable game management of coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers thoroughly outplayed the Eagles last week and yet somehow McCarthy managed to single-handedly keep the opposition in the game. The Packers lost six games this year- four of them by three points and the other two by four. Remarkably, they never trailed by more seven points at any point this season. Essentially, they are the most talented team in the league, New England included, and they look much more like a true number one seed at this point than Atlanta does. If the Falcons can keep it close, they will have a chance to win it late if Mike Smith outcoaches McCarthy, which is distinctly possible. Nevertheless, you have to go with the better team, and that’s clearly the Packers.
Pick: Green Bay +2.5/ Under 44
NFL PLAYOFF PREVIEW AND PREDICTION: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Much ballyhooed matchup between division rivals- always physical and traditionally close. This could be another field goal affair, but if anyone is able to pull away it will likely be the Steelers. The Ravens offense has been efficient but hardly explosive as of late. Ray Rice can be dynamic at times, but there’s little else to scare the Steelers here. Anquan Boldin is certainly an upgrade over last season’s no name wideout bunch, but let’s not forget that Boldin is more of a possession receiver than a field-stretcher. Joe Flacco had some success dinking and dunking to Boldin and Todd Heap last week against the Kansas City, but Pittsburgh ain’t no Kansas City. Likewise, the Raven defense may be a little overvalued based on their performance against a Chief offense that, let’s face it, was pretty easy to defend. The Steelers certainly have their weaknesses, namely the offensive line. But Ben Roethlisberger makes up for it with his rare combination of size and elusiveness. More importantly, Roethlisberger has something that Flacco lacks- a true deep threat in Mike Wallace. The Roethlisberger to Wallace connection could make the difference here.
Pick: Pittsburgh -3/ Under 37
TOP TEN REASONS WHY YOU NEED TO GO TO THE SUPER BOWL
10. The Matchup
For the first time since 1994 the two top seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl. Cinderella stories are all well and good, but there’s something to be said for the Colts and Saints, the league’s two best teams from day one, going at it in the grand finale. This is Celtics-Lakers, Red Sox-Yankees, Ali-Frazier. It’s one for the ages. A future ESPN Classic classic. If ever there was a time to make the Super Bowl trek, this is it.
9. Manning vs. Brees
2009 was the year of the quarterback, with ten of twelve playoff QB’s being current or past pro bowlers. As such, it’s only fitting that the two best signal callers, at least this season, will square off in Miami. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees may wind up together in Canton, Ohio one day, but on February 7 they’ll be on opposite sides of one of the most anticipated Super Bowl matchups in recent history. Brees and Manning were 1-2 in the league in touchdown passes (Brees 34, Manning 33) and completion percentage (Brees set a single season record with 70.6%, Manning no slouch at 68.8%). And, while Brees had the higher passer rating, anyone who saw Manning carve up a tough Jets defense knows that this is a great player at the top of his game. With Vegas already posting the highest over/under total in Super Bowl history, indications are this could turn into a classic shootout with the best QB’s in the game going toe-to-toe.
8. Miami: Tropical Climate
It’s a simple equation, really. Let A = temperature in Miami on February 7 (average high 77). Let B = temperature where you live on February 7. Now subtract: A – B = Why you should be in Miami on February 7.
7. The Coaches
The personality of the coach often sets the tone for the team. Indy’s Jim Caldwell is as stoic as they come, but the Colts have adopted his air of tight discipline and mental toughness. Saints’ skipper Sean Payton is an offensive genius, prowling the sidelines and barking out instructions while referencing his color-coded list of plays and formations as if it just may hold the key to the universe. So far for the Saints it pretty much has. It will be interesting to see whether Caldwell’s speedy defense can slow down Payton’s complex and dynamic attack. Conversely, one wonders whether the opportunistic Saints defense will be able to induce some mistakes from a regimented Colts offense predicated on timing and precision.
6. The Parties
You like to party? You can’t do much better than Super Bowl week in Miami. All due respect to your cousin Bob or the guys next door or whoever’s throwing the Super Bowl party in your neighborhood, but on-location Super Bowl parties are strictly of the world class variety. There’s the Maxim party, ESPN, the NFL Alumni party, and Leather and Laces, home of something called National Hottie Search 2010 that purports to identify the hottest woman in America. Sign me up. For the party, I mean. Not the contest.
5. The Fans
Considering that this is the first ever Super Bowl appearance for the Saints, and that Miami is drivable distance from New Orleans, we can surmise that South Beach will saturated with black and gold come game weekend. And that’s a good thing. Is there really another NFL fan base that you’d rather embark on a 72-hour party binge with? And lets not sell the Colts fans short either. This’ll be a classic American bar mix: the Bayou meets South Beach with a twist of Midwest conservatism, a Hurricane Mojito with a beer chaser. Feel free to knock back a few and make some new friends. You may never see them again but, hey, you’ll always have Miami. Seize the day.
4. Star Power
Rumor has it Reggie Bush has promised Kim Kardashian he’ll propose if the Saints win. The Leather and Laces party, hosted by Kim, may be your last chance to see her out as a single woman. Okay, no big deal. But if star sightings are your thing, Super Bowl week is a veritable nirvana. They’ll be there from all walks of celebrity life: jocks, rappers, movie stars, rock stars, reality TV, the cooking channel. Whether it’s Taylor Lautner that sends a tingle up your leg or Paris Hilton, your chances for a close encounter won’t get any better than next week in Miami.
3. Halftime Show: The Who
Where else can you get a concert from one of the great bands in history wrapped inside the biggest football game in the world? It’s all included in the price of Super Bowl admission. If the Colts and Saints haven’t got you sufficiently pumped, perhaps a little Baba O’Reilly or Won’t Get Fooled Again might do the trick. With millions watching, expect Townshend and Daltrey to rekindle the old magic and put on a great show.
2. Miami: Sexy Town
Did we mention that the Super Bowl is in Miami this year? Latin influence. Art Deco. Fashion moguls and super models. It’s a sexy town, Miami. And you’re a sexy person. Okay, maybe not. But you like hanging out with sexy people. Here’s your chance.
1. Two Words: Bucket List
Sky diving? Running with the bulls? Overrated in my book. The idea is to do fun things before you kick the bucket, not create new opportunities for kicking the bucket. The Super Bowl is much safer. Salsa lessons? Too much potential for public humiliation. Once again, the Super Bowl is safer. If you’ve never done it, this is your time. If you’ve done it before, we don’t have to sell you on it. This year’s edition has it all: great teams, a pair of hall of fame quarterbacks, tropical weather, the parties, the fans…there’s only one thing missing: YOU.
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SUPER BOWL EARLY PREVIEW
Key to the Game: Will Sharper dance on Sunday?
Peyton Manning’s excellence has been apparent over the last two weeks as he has picked apart two very good defenses, distributing the ball efficiently to a stable of receivers that includes both established stars (Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark) and young upstarts (Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie).
The Saints defense has made its living by blitzing the quarterback, but such an approach is potentially suicidal against Manning. On the other hand, the Saints’ opportunistic secondary may have a chance to make a big play. For all the hype about how great he is, Manning did throw 16 interceptions this season, sixth highest in the league. From a numbers standpoint, Drew Brees was actually the better quarterback, with 34 TD passes to Manning’s 33, 11 INT’s to Manning’s 16, and a 106.2 QB rating to Manning’s 99.9.
The ability of the Saints to produce a timely turnover or two will likely be the key to the game. The Saints don’t have a shutdown defense by any means, but they are opportunistic, second in the league in takeaways (39), interceptions (26) and third in turnover ratio at (+11). The importance of the takeway to the New Orleans game was evident in the NFC Championship Game against the Vikings. The Saints wouldn’t be here had they not been able to produce turnovers at pivotal moments. A lot of people have called this “lucky,” but luck has little to do with it. The Saints force turnovers by design.
One problem against the Colts is that Indy fumbled the ball only five times all year, least in the league. The Saints have a much better chance of benefitting from a Manning interception than an Addai fumble. The guy who needs to step up here is Saints safety Darren Sharper. Sharper had nine picks this season, with three returned for touchdowns. Sixth all-time on the interception list, Sharper broke Ed Reed’s record for return yardage in a single season this year with 376. If the Saints are going to win this game, chances are Darren Sharper is going to need to make a big play.
Considering that the Saints struggle mightily to defend the run, however, Indy may utilize the ground game a little more here than we’ve previously seen. Lacking a run-pass balance has been sore spot for the Colts offense. If they solve that problem in the Super Bowl by running effectively against the Saints they’ll be awfully tough to beat.
When the Saints have the ball they’ll use the run as well with an eye towards setting up some big plays downfield. Coach Sean Payton won’t be able to force as many mismatches as usual because the Colts play a lot of zone defense, but he’s extremely creative and effective in finding ways to score in the red zone. The Colts defense has held up nicely in the postseason, but that was against a pair of flawed offenses in the Ravens and Jets. The Saints provide a much stiffer test. As recently as week 15 the Jacksonville Jaguars put up 31 points against the Colts, suggesting some vulnerability. The Colts also struggled to beat the Patriots, a team that the Saints demolished.
Oddsmakers have installed the Colts as a decisive favorite, and, while it’s hard to question that choice, there is plenty of reason to believe that the Saints have a chance to make this interesting. With the two best teams in the league going at it, and two great quarterbacks taking the lead, the makings are there for an all-time classic.
