NFL Playoff Preview and Prediction: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
In a league where just about every team has a significant flaw, the Atlanta Falcons were able to secure a number one seed with a style most accurately described by Mike Tanier of the New York Times’ Fifth Down Blog as “blandly efficient.” The Falcons are solid pretty much across the board, but they are hardly spectacular. The one exception might be Roddy White, but he’s a bit banged up here and will certainly attract plenty of attention from a talented Green Bay defensive backfield. Even more ominous for Atlanta is the fact that they have not run the ball as well in the latter part of the season. This is an offense that put up 14 points at home against a New Orleans defense that got torched by the Seattle Seahawks last week. Green Bay has far more talent on defense than the Saints, and the recipe for slowing down or maybe even shutting down the Falcon offense looks pretty clear: blanket White and stack the box against the run. Meanwhile, we haven’t even mentioned the dynamic Packer offense. Aaron Rodgers has been hot and unlike Atlanta’s Matt Ryan he has no shortage of weapons to work with. The big story here, however, could be the emergence of James Starks as a legitimate running threat, perhaps the only key piece that the Packers have been lacking this season. The only question mark for Green Bay is the questionable game management of coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers thoroughly outplayed the Eagles last week and yet somehow McCarthy managed to single-handedly keep the opposition in the game. The Packers lost six games this year- four of them by three points and the other two by four. Remarkably, they never trailed by more seven points at any point this season. Essentially, they are the most talented team in the league, New England included, and they look much more like a true number one seed at this point than Atlanta does. If the Falcons can keep it close, they will have a chance to win it late if Mike Smith outcoaches McCarthy, which is distinctly possible. Nevertheless, you have to go with the better team, and that’s clearly the Packers.
Pick: Green Bay +2.5/ Under 44
NFL PLAYOFF PREVIEW AND PREDICTION: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Much ballyhooed matchup between division rivals- always physical and traditionally close. This could be another field goal affair, but if anyone is able to pull away it will likely be the Steelers. The Ravens offense has been efficient but hardly explosive as of late. Ray Rice can be dynamic at times, but there’s little else to scare the Steelers here. Anquan Boldin is certainly an upgrade over last season’s no name wideout bunch, but let’s not forget that Boldin is more of a possession receiver than a field-stretcher. Joe Flacco had some success dinking and dunking to Boldin and Todd Heap last week against the Kansas City, but Pittsburgh ain’t no Kansas City. Likewise, the Raven defense may be a little overvalued based on their performance against a Chief offense that, let’s face it, was pretty easy to defend. The Steelers certainly have their weaknesses, namely the offensive line. But Ben Roethlisberger makes up for it with his rare combination of size and elusiveness. More importantly, Roethlisberger has something that Flacco lacks- a true deep threat in Mike Wallace. The Roethlisberger to Wallace connection could make the difference here.
Pick: Pittsburgh -3/ Under 37
ROCK BOX SPORTS EERILY PRESCIENT IN SUPER BOWL PREVIEW…CALLS BIG MANNING TURNOVER AS KEY TO GAME
[See section in bold below]
Peyton Manning’s excellence has been apparent over the last two weeks as he has picked apart two very good defenses, distributing the ball efficiently to a stable of receivers that includes both established stars (Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark) and young upstarts (Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie). The Saints defense has made its living by blitzing the quarterback, but such an approach is potentially suicidal against Manning. On the other hand, the Saints’ opportunistic secondary may have a chance to make a big play. For all the hype about how great he is, Manning did throw 16 interceptions this season, sixth highest in the league. From a numbers standpoint, Drew Brees was actually the better quarterback, AND THE MORE TRULY DESERVING LEAGUE MVP, with 34 TD passes to Manning’s 33, 11 INT’s to Manning’s 16, and a 106.2 QB rating to Manning’s 99.9. The ability of the Saints to produce a timely turnover or two will likely be the key to the game. The Saints don’t have a shutdown defense by any means, but they are opportunistic, second in the league in takeaways (39), interceptions (26) and third in turnover ratio at (+11). The importance of the takeway to the New Orleans game was evident in the NFC Championship Game against the Vikings. The Saints wouldn’t be here had they not been able to produce turnovers at pivotal moments. A lot of people have called this “lucky,” but luck has little to do with it. The Saints force turnovers by design. One problem against the Colts is that Indy fumbled the ball only five times all year, least in the league. The Saints have a much better chance of benefitting from a Manning interception than an Addai fumble. The guy who needs to step up here is Saints safety Darren Sharper. Sharper had nine picks this season, with three returned for touchdowns. Sixth all-time on the interception list, Sharper broke Ed Reed’s record for return yardage in a single season this year with 376. If the Saints are going to win this game, chances are Darren Sharper is going to need to make a big play. Considering that the Saints struggle mightily to defend the run, however, Indy may utilize the ground game a little more here than we’ve previously seen. Lacking a run-pass balance has been sore spot for the Colts offense. If they solve that problem in the Super Bowl by running effectively against the Saints they’ll be awfully tough to beat.
When the Saints have the ball they’ll use the run as well with an eye towards setting up some big plays downfield. Coach Sean Payton won’t be able to force as many mismatches as usual because the Colts play a lot of zone defense, but he’s extremely creative and effective in finding ways to score in the red zone. The Colts defense has held up nicely in the postseason, but that was against a pair of flawed offenses in the Ravens and Jets. The Saints provide a much stiffer test. As recently as week 15 the Jacksonville Jaguars put up 31 points against the Colts, suggesting some vulnerability. The Colts also struggled to beat the Patriots, a team that the Saints demolished. Oddsmakers have installed the Colts as a decisive favorite, and, while it’s hard to question that choice, there is plenty of reason to believe that the Saints have a chance to make this interesting. With the two best teams in the league going at it, and two great quarterbacks taking the lead, the makings are there for an all-time classic.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION AND WEEKEND UPDATE
M onday September 21
3 STARS: MIAMI +3
2 STARS: MIAMI UNDER 42
WEEKEND UPDATE:
Big weekend in the pros…
2 STARS: SD/BALTIMORE OVER
1 STAR: AZ; ATLANTA; BALTIMORE; CLEVELAND; SAN FRAN
Hit our top college play 3 STARS on ARK/GA OVER and cashed in on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for the third straight time as we have been touting the Huskies all year (see article below).
