Central to the Rock Box handicapping philosophy is the idea of exploiting the gap between perception and reality. This is why we like Hype. We like it so much that we capitalize it for effect. Like this: Hype.

Media Hype. ESPN Hype. Sports Illustrated Hype. It’s a beautiful, beautiful thing for the savvy gambler on more than one level. First and foremost, Hype inflates public perception. And that, in turn, inflates point spreads. And then we take the points. And that inflates our bank accounts. That’s pretty much the way it works around here when all goes well.

But hold on, I’m getting ahead of myself just a bit. There’s a secondary quality to Hype as well. Hype inflates egos. It creates distractions. It diverts focus. The Greeks had it right, my friends. Hubris rankles the Gods. Pride comes before the fall. And Hype comes before the Pride.

And while we’re at it lets throw in the fact that Hype motivates the opposition. Have you ever seen Ray Lewis on the sidelines before a game against Tom Brady and the Patriots? If you didn’t know any better you might get the sense that he feels a touch of animosity. That’s because he doesn’t like the Hype. He feels disrespected. Overlooked. He wants to do something about it.

So what we’re saying here is that Hype is like a beautiful equation for the astute gambler:

Line value + Distracted/Overconfident Hype Recipient + Motivated Opposition = KaChing!

Okay, so with that established we’re ready to get down to the real business of today’s column: The 2011 Green Bay Packers and the Quest for the Undefeated Season. Because there’s no Hype quite like the “Can They Go Undefeated?” Hype that kicks in when a team gets to 12-0 and beyond.

If you happen to be a Patriots fan, as I am, you might recall an interesting point spread phenomenon that emerged during the 2007 near-perfect season. After starting on a murderous 9-3 tear ATS (actually they started 8-0 ATS), the Pats went 1-3 ATS in their final four regular season games that year, in addition to going 0-3 ATS in the postseason, for an Icarus-like 1-6 ATS crash and burn down the stretch.

Considering that the Packers are in a similar position right about now, sitting at 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS, Rock Box Sports decided to take a closer look at some of the other prominent teams that have started 12-0 or better in recent history. The list includes (in addition to the 2007 Pats): the 1998 Broncos (started 13-0); 2005 Colts (13-0); 2009 Colts (14-0); and 2009 Saints (13-0).

So what did we find? Well it shocked even us. All of the aforementioned teams were in roughly similar spots after 12 games in terms of their ATS records:

1998 Broncos: 9-3

2005 Colts: 9-3

2007 Pats: 9-3

2009 Colts: 8-3-1

2009 Saints: 8-4

2011 Packers: 8-4.

Okay, pretty good, right? Everyone’s betting the undefeated team, people are making money, Hype is building, the media’s on board, the public’s on board, [Insert Name Here] is the greatest quarterback ever to play the game. HE JUST CAN’T BE STOPPED.

And then what?

The bandwagon capsizes. The combination of public frenzy, media distraction, player Hubris and increasingly motivated opposition becomes too much to bear and the whole thing just tips. Call it the Point Spread Valdez.

Here’s a look at these same teams and their ATS records over the last four games of the regular season:

1998 Broncos: 0-4

2005 Colts: 0-3-1

2007 Pats: 1-3

2009 Colts: 2-2

2009 Saints: 0-4

See what I’m getting at here? Total ATS record in the final four games of the regular season for teams that started 13-0 or better since 1998: 3-16-1.   

Don’t believe the Hype, folks. The best bet in the NFL over the next four weeks might just be a blind one AGAINST the Green Bay Packers.

Two years ago a brilliant pass by Ben Roethlisberger and even better catch by Santonio Holmes in the corner of the endzone garnered the headlines, earning Holmes the Super Bowl MVP award and Roethlisberger a reputation for clutch performance.

It was a great play.

But it wasn’t the biggest play of Super Bowl XLIII.

That distinction goes to James Harrison, the game’s real MVP. With 18 seconds left in the half, and the Steelers clinging to a 10-7 lead, Arizona had a first and goal at the Pittsburgh one-yard line. As the Steelers blitzed Kurt Warner from the edge, Harrison duped Warner, stepped in front of his hot read, intercepted the ball and proceeded to rumble and stumble his way 100-yards down the sideline and into the endzone at the opposite end of the field with 0:00 showing on the clock. An epic 14-point swing at the end of the half, turning what might easily have been a 14-10 Arizona lead into a 17-7 deficit. The Steelers went on to win by four.

And here again, in Super Bowl XLV, despite a brilliant offensive performance from Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, it was a defensive play that made the difference.

Rodgers clearly deserved game MVP award, and he certainly outplayed Roethlisberger. Nevertheless, the Steelers remained in the game to the final minute and had every chance to win their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history.

In fact, for all the focus on Rodgers, let’s not forget that Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense actually put up more points than Rodgers and his offense did. If the game was just about offensive scoring, Pittsburgh wins 25-24.

In a battle between two otherwise evenly matched teams, it was a defensive play by Green Bay,  seizing upon Pittsburgh’s one glaring weakness- the offensive line- that made the difference.

With 3:34 remaining in the first quarter, Pittsburgh, trailing 7-0, lined up from its own 7-yard line. As Roethlisberger stepped back to pass, Green Bay defensive linemen Howard Green made a mockery of the Steeler pass protection, bullrushing his way through the soft interior of the line and planting an arm directly into the throwing shoulder of Big Ben. It was more than enough to disrupt the throw- allowing Nick Collins to step in and make the interception as Mike Wallace, the intended receiver, streaked to daylight behind him. Things might have been different if the ball got to Wallace, but it never did. Instead Collins took it back 37 yards for a Packer TD.

Howard Green didn’t get any MVP votes. His name barely garners a mention in the hallowed halls of ESPN. But, in a game that finished with a six point margin of victory, his disruption of the Roethlisberger pass has a decisive feel to it.

So congratulations Aaron Rodgers on your Super Bowl MVP award, you deserve it. But maybe, at the end of the day, it’s true what they say.

Defense wins championships.

Arizona Cardinals: “Baby Come Back”- Player

Come back Kurt Warner. The Arizona Cardinals (and the NFL) are missing you desperately right about now. Turns out that replacing Warner with Matt Leinart was a little like replacing Robert DeNiro with Screech from “Saved By the Bell.” Seriously. One guy is a gridiron warrior, a Super Bowl champion, a likely Hall of Famer, dedicated to God and family. The other guy does beer funnels with high school chicks. So the Cards could be going with Derek Anderson, but either way the quarterback position looks like a deal breaker for 2010. Still, they’ll be fine in the long run. Ken Whisenhunt will make sure of it. He came out west from Pittsburgh and, at heart, he likes power running and defense. Warner’s departure marks the beginning of the transition to a new style. Whisenhunt nabbed two outstanding defensive players in the draft. Space-clogging nose tackle Dan Williams (6-2, 327) could anchor a stiff run defense for years to come while speedy linebacker Daryl Washington plugs the hole created by Karlos Dansby’s departure. If Whisenhunt has his way, and I think he will eventually, this team could reinvent itself as Pittsburgh Steelers West.

Atlanta Falcons: “Coming Up”- Paul McCartney

The loss of Michael Turner for several games last year proved too much to overcome for an offense that depends on Turner to move the chains and set up the play action pass. Turner looks healthy and refreshed for 2010 and that bodes well for the team’s playoff chances. Defensively they made one key free agent addition with the signing of outstanding cornerback Dunta Robinson from Houston. The team also welcomes back defensive lineman Peria Jerry, last year’s first round pick, who missed virtually his entire rookie season due to injury. Adding Robinson, Jerry, and this year’s first rounder, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, brings in three potential impact players that could change the face of the defense. All in all this team was devastated by injuries last year- and they still went 9-7. If they stay healthy they could be better than the 11-5 Falcon team that made the playoffs two years ago.  

Baltimore Ravens: “How Soon is Now”- The Smiths

The arrival of Anquan Boldin is huge for a team that may have been one good receiver away from the Super Bowl last season. Ray Rice is a real weapon out of the backfield and Joe Flacco should step up now that he actually has someone to throw to. And the offensive line is one of the best in the game. So there’s plenty of good young talent on offense. But let’s face it, the identity of this team emanates from the graybeards on defense, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, both of whom have been waging war with Father Time for years. This can’t go on forever. Lewis has to slow down eventually and Reed is extremely unlikely to play beyond this season. If they can both stay healthy and productive through the playoffs, they can go out on top. In essence, the Ravens are hoping that, for one glorious moment in time, the great defense of teams past and the blossoming young offense that may well mark their future, can sufficiently overlap. For Lewis and Reed, the time is now.      

Buffalo Bills: “The Old Main Drag”- The Pogues

All of a sudden the rough-and-tumble AFC East is a nasty place to be if you’re the Buffalo Bills- sort of like London’s “Old Main Drag” where Pogues frontman Shane McGowan suffered all kinds of unspeakable indignities, not the least of which included getting “shat on and spat on and raped and abused.” That’s pretty much the kind of treatment the Bills can expect in 2010. Actually there are some redeeming qualities here. Buffalo’s defensive backfield is stellar and rookie C.J. Spiller could be explosive. Offensive line and quarterback are real problems, though, as are the six games against New England, New York and Miami.  

Carolina Panthers: “It Takes Two”- Marvin Gaye and Kim Weston

Does anybody realize that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are one of the best running back tandems in NFL history and, very possibly, when all is said and done, could wind up as THE BEST. Last year the Williams-Stewart two-headed monster became just the sixth duo in NFL history to run for 1000 yards each, posting the highest combined total for two backs EVER. Even more remarkably, as our friends at coldhardfootballfacts.com point out, Williams and Stewart both averaged over five yards a carry last year, a feat matched only by the Larry Csonka-Mercury Morris duo of the ’72 Dolphins. Coldhardfootballfacts also notes that if Williams averages 5+ ypc with 200+ carries again this year he will become only the third back in history to do so for three consecutive seasons. The other two? Marshall Faulk and Jim Brown.  

Cincinnati Bengals: “On the Road Again”- Willie Nelson

This year’s Bengal squad may be better than last year’s playoff version, but with a brutal schedule the improvement may not show up in the standings. The road schedule is particularly daunting. Aside from their annual visits to Baltimore and Pittsburgh the Bengals will also face the Patriots, Falcons, Colts and Jets on the road. The defense and running games are solid if not spectacular but let’s not get carried away with the TO signing. This ain’t the TO of old. Moving the ball through the air could remain an Achilles heel. Cincy should beat the teams they’re supposed to beat but they can’t hang with the big boys- and there are many on the schedule.

Chicago Bears: “Blowin’ in the Wind”- Bob Dylan

Why in the name of Ditka would a team try and institute the Mike Martz offense in a place like Chicago? Actually, at this point, we might ask why a team would institute the Martz offense at all. But, surely, if you were gonna try it, the place to do so would be in a warm weather climate or a dome. There’s a reason why the Bears have never had great quarterbacks: because it’s damn near impossible to throw the ball consistently in Soldier Field with the wind whipping around off the lake in the dead of winter. The relatively few good Bear teams of the past have always succeeded with defense, special teams, and smashmouth running games, not pass-happy finesse. Oh yeah, and there’s not an established NFL receiver on the roster and the quarterback dishes out turnovers like candy on Halloween. Other than that everything’s great. So will the Martz experiment succeed in Soldier Field? The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind.   

Cleveland Browns: “Patience”- Guns N Roses

For the first time in a while there is actually some hope in Cleveland, particularly now that Mike Holmgren is running the show. Believe it or not, the Browns have one of the top offensive lines in the game. The skill positions, on the other hand, leave a little something to be desired. If rookie running back Montario Hardesty is the real deal they might be able to run it a bit, but the lack of a passing threat won’t help. Defensively the front line is potentially good, but plenty of holes remain elsewhere. They’ll be better than they were last season, but there’s still a ways to go. 

Dallas Cowboys: “Wishing on a Star”- Rose Royce

Cowboy stock seems to be falling as the season approaches largely due to age and injuries on the offensive line. But the defense was dominant down the stretch last season, holding the Saints to 17 points on the road and pitching shutouts in their last two games. Offensively they now add Dez Bryant to an attack that was hardly anemic to begin with. They deserve to be the favorites in the division. The question is, do you really want to put your money on Romo and Wade Phillips in the playoffs? I’ll pass.

Denver Broncos: “My Way”- Frank Sinatra

As demonstrated last year when he jettisoned Jay Cutler, and again this year when he drafted Tim Tebow, Broncos coach Josh McDaniel does things His Way. Let the record show, however, that his team took some blows coming into the season. With a revamped defensive line, the Broncos appeared to be on their way to fielding a top-ten caliber defense in 2010. That was before their best player, Elvis Dumervil, went down for the season. On the other side of ball key offensive lineman Ryan Clady is expected to miss at least three months as well. This is a problem for an offense conspicuously lacking in explosiveness at the skill positions.  McDaniel is a good young coach, so the season shouldn’t be a total disaster. If he has his team in the playoff hunt he gets my vote for coach of the year. 

Detroit Lions: “Cool Change”- Little River Band

Maybe Rocky Balboa said it best after his defeat of Ivan Drago in Rocky IV: “If I can change…then you can change…everybody can change!” Okay, changing the hearts of Cold War Russians and singlehandedly avoiding nuclear armageddon is one thing, but what about the Detroit Lions? Can they change too? Now that’s a challenge. Suddenly, however, Jim Schwartz and company seem to be moving in the right direction. Expecting this team to contend for a playoff spot is too much to ask, but make no mistake, positive change is in the air. Matt Stafford showed great physical and mental toughness last season to go along with the physical tools and football IQ we already knew he had. Calvin Johnson is a stud and the arrival of Nate Burleson means that teams can’t double and triple team him like they did last year. Late first round pick Jahvid Best could provide an explosive option in the running game. On defense, the signings of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams, in combination with the drafting of Ndamukong Suh, should instantly transform the defensive line from a joke into a nightmare for opposing teams. The back end of the defense remains a problem, but a disruptive defensive line can cover up a few blemishes elsewhere. Don’t look now, but the Lions are headed towards respectability.

Green Bay Packers: “Bring it on Home”- Led Zeppelin

The 2010 Pack is looking to bring the Lombardi Trophy back home to Lambeau Field and they’ve got the talent to do it. Aaron Rodgers may not have made the Cheeseheads forget his predecessor altogether, but he is certainly easing the adjustment to the Post-Favrian calendar. Charles Woodson was as good as it gets last year and his fellow defenders should be much improved in the second year of the Dom Capers scheme. This is the team to beat in the NFC North. What remains to be seen is whether coach Mike McCarthy can take them to the next level (i.e. the Super Bowl).

Houston Texans: “Just Once”- James Ingram

Considering that the Texans are the only franchise in the four major sports never to have qualified for postseason play, it would be nice if, just once, they could find a way to finally make it right, make the magic last for more than just one night. A perennial darkhorse pick in the AFC, 2010 could be the year they finally get over the hump. After a rough start the defense gelled down the stretch and Matt Schaub threw for the sixth highest single season yardage total in NFL history. Once Brian Cushing returns Houston will have one of the best set of linebackers in the game, and Mario Williams is no slouch on the defensive line. Problem is, they’ve got to find a way to avoid their traditional slow start with Cushing suspended for the first four. 

Indianapolis Colts: “The Beat Goes On”- Sonny and Cher

The beat goes on in the AFC South where the Colts continue to rack up regular season wins (followed by postseason flameouts.) One of these days Houston is going to step up and make this a race. And there’s always the Super Bowl loser hex working against the Colts as well. But with Bob Sanders reportedly feeling good and some good young speed rushers coming in through the draft, the Colts have to be considered the division favorites once again. Indy’s front office is among the best in the game and the constant flow of good new young players keeps this team at the top year after year. Now if only Manning can be as scintillating against playoff competition as he is against the Jaguars in October they might actually win another championship. Until then, they are looking more and more like the Atlanta Braves of the NFL.  

Jacksonville Jaguars: “Who Are You”- The Who

Quick, name four guys who play for the Jaguars. Sure you know Maurice Jones-Drew. Maybe David Garrard. If you play fantasy football you might know Mike Sims-Walker. Things get a little dicey from there. Let’s just say this isn’t the sexiest team in the league. That said, they could be solid. Jack Del Rio needs to make the playoffs to keep his job and he knows it. Could make for an inspired effort and maybe a surprising run at playoff contention.

Kansas City Chiefs: “New Day Rising”- Husker Du

There are signs of a possible breakout- at least offensively- and if you have to pick somebody to come out of nowhere and shock the Chargers, the Chiefs could be that team. Unlike the NBA, which is a player’s league, coaching makes all the difference in the NFL. And the Chiefs now have one of the better staffs in the league with Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel coming as coordinators. With Jamal Charles, Thomas Jones, Dwayne Bowe, and small but electrifying rookie Dexter McCluster, Weis has some legitimate weapons to work with here. On defense, well, not so much. First round pick Eric Berry is already making his presence felt at safety, and they can’t be much worse than last year, but the front seven remains soft. If Crennel can coax them into mere mediocrity, if Matt Cassell can do the job at quarterback, and if the Chargers continue to regress, Kansas City might just go 9-7 and steal this division.

Miami Dolphins: “The Maestro”- Beastie Boys

Rex Ryan may be hogging the spotlight in the AFC East these days, but there’s another fat guy in this division as well, a guy named Bill Parcells. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. Parcells is in his third year as front office maestro in Miami and he’s got a pretty decent track record in building teams through the draft. In fact, when has Parcells ever been in a single place for three years without generating a winner? Answer: Never. He took over a Giants team that had one winning season in a decade and led them to the playoffs in his second season and the Super Bowl in his fourth. Same with the Patriots- playoffs in year two, Super Bowl in year four. Parcells laid some of the foundation for the Belichick dynasty in New England, drafting guys like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy and Tedy Bruschi. Next he took over the Jets after the disastrous 4-28 Rich Kotite era. Again, playoffs in year two. The Cowboys were coming off of three consecutive 5-11 seasons when they brought him in and this time he got to the playoffs in year one. Granted, he’s not the coach in Miami, but he knows a little something about winning. There’s a lot to like about his team this season: Ronnie Brown healthy again; Brandon Marshall added at wideout; rebuilt offensive line; Karlos Dansby added to the defense; and a promising draft bringing in potential impact players on both sides of the ball. Most of all, Chad Henne is a future star. If Henne blossoms in 2010 the Phins will be a very hard team defend and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  

Minnesota Vikings: “No More Tears (Enough is Enough)”- Barbara Streisand and Donna Summer

Seriously Brett. Enough is enough. Same goes for you ESPN and your relentless hype machine. This whole thing has gotten way out of hand. There’s only one way to end this saga once and for all- with Favre learning the hard way by returning one time too many. This could be that year. The sudden uncertainty at wide receiver with Sidney Rice injured and Percy Harvin questionable from week to week is a significant blow. Something tells me that Favre and the Vikes crash and burn in 2010.  

New England Patriots: “Werewolves of London”- Warren Zevon

I saw Tom Brady drinking a Pina Colada at Trader Vic’s- and his hair was perfect. More importantly, so was his surgically reconstructed left knee and his generally stellar quarterbacking acumen. Brady never really caught stride last season, largely due to his offseason preparation being interrupted by knee rehab. It’ll be a different story in 2010. Meanwhile, Brady’s dynastic co-star Bill Belichick is said to be showing a renewed commitment to hands-on defensive coaching. For all the talk of decline, New England went 10-6 last season, losing two games by a point and a third in overtime by a field goal. They could have easily been 13-3. The Logan Mankins holdout is a problem, but the arriving draft class is abundant in number with a pair of pass-catching tight ends (Rob Gronkowski, Dallas Clark-type Aaron Hernandez) coming in along with some promising defenders (CB Devin McCourty, LB’s Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes). And, oh yeah, before you pronounce the Pats championship run over and done, keep in mind that they have the Raiders’ first round pick, as well as their own, and two more second rounders, in next year’s NFL draft.  

New Orleans Saints: “Do it Again”- Steely Dan

Nobody questions the offense but there’s a sense that the defense did it with smoke and mirrors to some extent last year. In essence, the Saints were a middle of the road defense that lived for the big play, forcing turnovers at a rapid rate. Much credit is due for defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and playmakers like Darren Sharper who made it work, but it’s hard to believe they can do it again in 2010. The schedule was soft last year as well. With the proverbial target on their backs this time around, repeating might be harder than it looks.   

New York Giants: “Lawyers, Guns and Money”- Warren Zevon

Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg with a gun prior to last season and then he had to spend a whole lot of money on lawyers while the Giants wondered what would become of their passing game. In fact, the loss of Burress turned out to be a blessing in disguise as a group of young receivers blossomed and Eli Manning took a major step forward. The real problem was on the defensive side of the ball where the scheme changes implemented by one-and-done defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan resulted in a disastrous meltdown. New coordinator Perry Fewell should put some teeth back into the Giant defense. This, combined with the increasingly diverse and effective passing attack, should have this team back in the playoffs in 2010.  

New York Jets: “Bigmouth Strikes Again”- The Smiths

Rex Ryan loves attention almost as much as he loves m&m’s. In fact, Ryan’s overzealous spotlight-hogging has become so extreme that there seems to be an emerging backlash. What have the Jets ever accomplished? How good can they really be? If you’ve read your Greek tragedy you must realize that this kind of unchecked hubris usually buys a one-way ticket to the trash heap. Here’s the problem, though: this team is pretty good. The defense will remain the best in the league when Darrelle Revis finally checks in. And let’s not forget that space-clogging nose tackle Kris Jenkins is back after missing much of last season. The offensive line is elite as well and the acquisition of Santonio Holmes brings vast improvement at receiver. The only things standing between the Jets and the Super Bowl are the quarterback and running back positions. Shonn Greene looked great in the playoffs, but there are questions about his durability and endurance. If Sanchez progresses and Greene stays healthy, they can win it all. It says here they fall short in one or both of those areas and just miss in 2010.      

Oakland Raiders: “Space Oddity”- David Bowie

Ground control to Major Tom (Cable that is). Commencing countdown, engines on. Check ignition and (here’s the key part) may God’s love be with you. Actually, there’s an argument to be made for the Raiders this year. It goes something like this: JaMarcus Russell was so epically atrocious that his presence alone was enough to obscure the fact that the rest of this team really isn’t that bad. The Raiders were 2-7 in games that Russell started last season. When anyone else started, and we’re talking Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye here, so I really do mean anyone, they were a respectable 3-4. In comparison, the arrival of Jason Campbell must seem like the second coming of Sammy Baugh. Unfortunately, coaching and the, ahem, organization, remain problematic. Schematically challenged on both sides of the ball, the Raiders are just a bit too easy to exploit. To use a geopolitical analogy, Raider Nation is the North Korea of the NFL, and Al Davis is its Kim Jong-Il: an obscure, eccentric, jumpsuit-wearing dictator subjecting his minions to all kinds of senseless suffering in the name of a deluded and hopelessly outdated personal vision of the way things should be.

Philadelphia Eagles: “New Kid in Town”- The Eagles

It’s easy to count Philly out on the simple basis that McNabb and Westbrook are gone and quarterback Kevin Kolb- the new kid in town- is an unknown quantity. I’m going the other way with this one. I’ll give Andy Reid the benefit of the doubt. If Kevin Kolb is good enough for him he’s good enough for me. Kolb doesn’t even have to be great. Surrounded as he is by a dynamic receiving corps and two good backs in LeSean McCoy and free agent signee Mike Bell, he just needs to not suck. Defensively, the front seven pressures the quarterback extremely well. First rounder Brandon Graham could thrive in this system. If they can just find a replacement for Brian Dawkins and plug the holes in their pass defense they’re in the race.

Pittsburgh Steelers: “Sunday Morning Coming Down”- Kris Kristofferson

This franchise has had a great run for the better part of a decade, but there are real signs that decline could be setting in. Like a Ben Roethlisberger night on the town, all good things must come to an end, and there are hangovers (and sometimes litigation) that follow suit. Few teams are as reliant on a single player as the Steelers are on Troy Polamalu. With him in the lineup they’ve been a perennial playoff contender. Without him last year they were mediocre and had no chance. Even with Polamalu back on the field, this defense is aging rapidly. And the offense isn’t exactly loaded. Mike Tomlin talks tough but he still has a little something to prove here. Yes, he has a Super Bowl ring, but then again so do Barry Switzer and George Seifert. Like the aforementioned, Tomlin rode the momentum of the great coach who preceded him for a good year and a half. Now he’s on his own and it remains to be seen whether he can move the team forward. This could be the year that people start to realize that Pittsburgh made a mistake in choosing Tomlin over Ken Whisenhunt when Cowher stepped down.  

San Diego Chargers: “It’s So Easy”- Linda Ronstadt

It may be so easy to fall in love but it’s even easier to win the AFC West. Once again, the Chargers are the favorites by process of elimination. Don’t be fooled, though. Much like Linda Ronstadt (see right) the Chargers are not aging well. They’re far from the sexy Super Bowl contenders they were a few years back. The offensive line is problematic and the once great defense is now no better than mediocre. Vincent Jackson’s holdout doesn’t help much, but at least Philip Rivers is still around. Rivers alone gives the Bolts an edge- albeit a dwindling one- over Kansas City, Denver and Oakland. 

San Francisco Forty-Niners: “Show Me the Way”- Peter Frampton

Strong leadership is the emergent theme in San Francisco. Mike Singletary is showing this young but talented team what it takes to win. Just ask Vernon Davis. Patrick Willis is as great a leader, and as great a player, as there is in the league on the defensive side of the ball. And with two first round draft picks added to the mix, the offensive line could show Frank Gore the way to a monster season in 2010. The only remaining question is whether Alex Smith can step up and lead this offense. If he can, the Niners are a legit Super Bowl contender.

Seattle Seahawks: “Outlaw Pete”- Bruce Springsteen

No one seems to be expecting much from Pete Carroll in his return to the league and perhaps rightfully so. Carroll’s rah-rah “lets rip it” approach and his dorky fist-pumping sideline demeanor certainly haven’t translated well to the NFL in the past. Still, Carroll has a few things going for him here: one of the best homefield advantages in the league; a pair of quality linebackers to build on in Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry; and a division that appears somewhat wide open.

St. Louis Rams: “Solitary Man”- Neil Diamond

Steven Jackson deserves better. He’s way too good to waste away alone on a team like this. Same goes for head coach Steve Spagnuolo. What we have here are a good young coach and a borderline great running back spinning their wheels in a talent-deprived hellhole. Seriously, even the Lions look like the 1975 Steelers compared to this Rams team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: “All the Young Dudes”- Mott the Hoople

Youth movements don’t get much more, well, youthful, than this. 24 year-old Josh Johnson will start the season at quarterback- and he’s subbing for injured 22 year-old starter Josh Freeman. The number one receiver (Mike Williams) as well as the two best defensive players (Gerald McCoy and Brian Price) are all rookies. Even the coach, Raheem Morris, is only 33. This year is strictly about finding out which of the aforementioned, including the coach, can be retained as building blocks for the future.

Tennessee Titans: “Mysterious Ways”- U2

How does Vince Young do it? He never looks pretty out there but he seems to find a way to win. And which Titans team will show up in 2010- the one that started 0-6 or the one that finished 8-2? With Chris Johnson running the rock and Jeff Fisher, longest tenured coach in the NFL and one of the best, running the show, anything is possible. Okay winning the division may be out of reach, but the playoffs certainly aren’t. It’s a tough division though. A few key bounces (or injuries) here or there make the difference between a wild card berth and last place.     

Washington Redskins: “Beast of Burden”- Rolling Stones

Is there a bigger beast of burden in the league right now, literally or figuratively, than Albert Haynesworth? Probably not. Actually, the Haynesworth episode offers the perfect opportunity for Mike Shanahan to lay down the law and offer up an example to the rest of a squad that had grown soft under Jim Zorn. It’s a good place for a new coaching regime to start. And the bigger the player, literally and figuratively, the better. Bill Belichick sent malcontent Terry Glenn packing back in 2001, a time when he seemed like the only decent offensive player on the New England roster. Everyone thought Belichick was crazy until the Pats won the Super Bowl with Troy Brown and David Patten as their starting receivers. Josh McDaniel made a similar statement in Denver last year by refusing to suck up to Jay Cutler. Look for the Skins to buy-in, rally around their coach, and come out swinging.

-Chris Marakovitz

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